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Phil Starr

What will you be doing in May?

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I'm going to stick my neck out here, and make a prediction. Sometime towards the end of May we will all start gigging again properly. Everyone is going to be so up for going out we are going to have a great time in the second half of next year.

OK, of course I can't possibly know that, but in Jan when I saw the information from China I told my family there would be a pandemic. Then I anticipated the inevitable second peak after the pubs opened and the schools went back and I'm prepared to predict the blindingly obvious third peak and lockdown about 2-3 weeks into January, expect another lockdown. After that it's going to look a lot more cheerful, by the end of March the most vulnerable members of society will be vaccinated and a substantial number of others will also be immune by infection and vaccination. By this time I expect the other cheaper more stable vaccines will have kicked in too so supplies will be less of an issue. Even with 30% of the population vaccinated the r-rate will reduce by..... er 30%. Combined with the rather pathetic safety measures in place and people moving outside the r-rate will fall permanently below 1 and life will gradually return to normal for most of us.

Anyway I got sidetracked. Sometime around May we will get back to gigging again What plans do you have? How has your band survived the last year? Are you bringing in new skills developed from spending more time at home or like me have you just got a little rusty?

 

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I like to think I have got better, but you never know until you are standing there thinking 'God, I have no idea how we start this song!"

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20 minutes ago, Woodinblack said:

I like to think I have got better, but you never know until you are standing there thinking 'God, I have no idea how we start this song!"

Every. Single. Time.

😂

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I personally think May is rather optimistic. At least as far as full on gigs go. I can't see there being enough of the population vaccinated by then for things to get back to "normal". There might be gigs, but I suspect there will still be some form of social distancing and crowd control in place. That's if there's anywhere left open to play. 

Edited by Newfoundfreedom
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I'm playing more, learning better recording/production techniques, invested more in the home studio, listening to/playing tracks in genres that I'd never have considered before this mess...I'd like to think that I've definitely improved and expanded my musical horizons.  As for gigging in May - it would be a nice thought but I'm not entirely convinced that it will be happening.

 

Edited by DaytonaRik

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2 hours ago, Woodinblack said:

I like to think I have got better, but you never know until you are standing there thinking 'God, I have no idea how we start this song!"

We had two open air gigs this summer, I'd run though the set a couple of times before but there were a couple of hairy moments saved only by a bit of muscle memory. The rest of the band were no better and it's when the singer goes for a verse instead of a chorus you realise how you need that extra bit of sharpness.

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I had already pretty much retired from gigging two years before the pandemic hit, but I was still getting out of the house jamming at least once a week until March. At this point I haven't touched a bass in over a month, which usually means it's time to go into a guitar cycle for a year or two. So I reckon I'll take a stab at writing enough new material to eventually gig with, and I'll just hire someone else to play bass if and when that happens. I'd say May of 2022 might be a reasonable expectation where I am, FWIW.

Edited by Passinwind

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I think your predictions are totally right Phil. I hope some musicians will be out there as I’m booked to take my grandkids on a Disney Cruise ( should have been last August but took the cruise credit ) and I really enjoy the quality of people cruise lines book to play in the bars.  The main theatre bands are brill too, but Disney use backing tracks for their shows, I guess Mickey isn’t up to live singing. 🤣

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1 hour ago, Phil Starr said:

The rest of the band were no better and it's when the singer goes for a verse instead of a chorus you realise how you need that extra bit of sharpness.

We had that when we were playing every weekend, god knows what it is going to be like when we get back!

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I think May is a bit optimistic, personally.  Bear in mind that while the vaccines give most recipients protection from the disease, ie, stops them developing symptoms and falling ill, it doesn't stop them transmitting the disease to other people.  That being the case a very large proportuon of the population will require the vaccine before the Swing-O-Meter starts tilting back towards normal.  Even then, I think it will be a few years before things are truly approaching where they were prior to the virus.

In summary, Id dearly love to be gigging in May and enjoying having young groupies throw their knockers at me on stage, but I'm  not terribly optimistic that I, or many others, will be doing so.

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34 minutes ago, Bassfinger said:

I think May is a bit optimistic, personally.  Bear in mind that while the vaccines give most recipients protection from the disease, ie, stops them developing symptoms and falling ill, it doesn't stop them transmitting the disease to other people.  That being the case a very large proportuon of the population will require the vaccine before the Swing-O-Meter starts tilting back towards normal.  Even then, I think it will be a few years before things are truly approaching where they were prior to the virus.

In summary, Id dearly love to be gigging in May and enjoying having young groupies throw their knockers at me on stage, but I'm  not terribly optimistic that I, or many others, will be doing so.

Sadly I agree.

Vaccinating 60 million people is not going to happen in the next 6 months. And as gig goers are likely to be younger they will be at the back of the queue.

Can’t see full venues being allowed until 2022 sometime. Distancing will be needed until a good 90% have been vaccinated.

 

I am really missing my big band 😢

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May - no chance. I finally heard a bit of information on R4 Today prog that gives an idea - one of the hospitals took 3 days to get through one of the Pfizer “pizza boxes” of vaccine. (Almost 1000 doses per box)

so - 1.2 million nhs staff, 70 hospitals, approx 1000 people per 3 days per hospital gives around 51 days for staff alone for one injection. 

I’d love to be wrong, but next Autumn looks more likely to me.

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6 hours ago, Phil Starr said:

Even with 30% of the population vaccinated the r-rate will reduce by..... er 30%. Combined with the rather pathetic safety measures in place and people moving outside the r-rate will fall permanently below 1 and life will gradually return to normal for most of us.

I think May is hugely optimistic. Your analysis of the R rate is wrong - if you vaccinate the most at risk 30% who are already being very careful it wont make a difference.  The ones who either don't care or are too thick to understand how to minimise transmission will carry on as they do every time lockdown ends then this will go on for much longer.

I agree with you that we will be in lockdown again in January, because of the relaxation over Xmas but lockdowns are becoming less effective because people follow the rules less on each one.

I'm on the London outskirts - I went out for dinner yesterday and plan to go out again tomorrow as I suspect it's my last chance to get out before Xmas - we will be moved into tier 3 next week.  Almost all the rise in numbers locally is due to schools and unless the lockdown addresses that issue this will ping-pong until a high % of he population is vaccinated.

The only hope of getting back to normal more quickly is if we vaccinate the vulnerable and forget about the R rate for the rest of us.  This would require a fundamental change in the scientific advice and I don;t see it happening.

Edited by Nicko
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Putting a date on it is only a bit of fun, if it's the 2nd week in June  or the last week of April the day will come. The fun is in thinking about how we will all respond and being ready for it. I'm as happy as anyone to compare and contrast what we should do with what we will do about Covid but really I want to do something more cheerful, what are you planning for when we get back to gigging? How has your band survived the interruption? Have you planned anything yet? Let's look upwards for a while :)

I'll stick with my prediction for a while, I'm not predicting no disease just an r-rate consistently below one and this government still in power. Their instincts for prioritising the economy over health and safety and the need they have for good news. I'm not predicting the disease gone or the end of hygiene measures but the lifting of restrictions on gigging and public performance by the end of May. I'm not even saying it will be an entirely sensible decision. 

I'm also imagining January will be carnage and hope for more of a willingness to listen to evidence based policy on Covid as a response. It's always possible to go out and find somewhere where the vaccination or whatever isn't going well and reporters will have been scouring the country for an example of failure. I'm also factoring in the increased use of the more conventional and easier to handle vaccines like the Astra Zeneca/ Sputnik V and the Chinese ones (not in this country, but they have been mass vaccinating since June). In the week ending 2nd Dec 1.6million people were tested for Covid, the limits on vaccination are going to be the supply and manufacture of vaccine rather than the injection itself. 

You can all tell me later I got the date wrong :)

 

Edited by Phil Starr

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I'm writing-off 2021; no gigs, no holiday(s), etc. but admire your optimism. 

Vaccine or otherwise, it's going to take a long, long time for everyone to get it here, let alone elsewhere.  I'm still of the mindset that there'll be some 21st century version of Typhoid Mary out there to throw a spanner in the works. 

Its going to get worse after Christmas, trust me.  Viruses have little respect for (religious) holidays or how they spread.

 

Edited by NancyJohnson
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I've had a hiatus from bands, and ironically just before Covid came along I'd decided to get back into bands again. (Partly sparked by going to watch Editors in Manchester :D )

I will, when circumstances permit, be out gigging again. When that is who knows. It could be May 2021, but if it's later then I'm fine with that, I can wait.

I've already been in touch with a few old band mates and there's the possibility of putting something together, so that's hopeful.

Covid aside, my other reservation is whether there will still be places to play. Hospitality and entertainment have taken one almighty hit and to be honest I think there will be a lot of bands trying to get booked at a handful of venues. Getting paid is a whole other ball game.

But yes, if it's safe in May, I'd be looking to get out there again.

HOWEVER. I think gigging is a long way off in reality. Proper gigging, if it's ever to come back, could be over 12 months away.  It's no surprise to me that infection rates remain stubbornly high when I see so many people simply ignoring social distancing. Through my work I see the people in my small town who are in and out of each others houses,  the people who have friends or relatives staying over night, and all the other infringements. I don't think the virus is going anywhere for a long time.

 

EDIT: and just as I finished typing, the people who live across the road have just had friends arrive and walked straight into their house. We're in this for a long time.

Edited by Marvin
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4 hours ago, NancyJohnson said:

I'm writing-off 2021; no gigs, no holiday(s), etc. but admire your optimism

Vaccine or otherwise, it's going to take a long, long time for everyone to get it here, let alone elsewhere.  I'm still of the mindset that there'll be some 21st century version of Typhoid Mary out there to throw a spanner in the works. 

Its going to get worse after Christmas, trust me.  Viruses have little respect for (religious) holidays or how they spread.

 

 

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Sadly I think @Marvins observations are pretty much what is happening all over, as such I’m in agreement, not sure we’ll be back to gigging as quickly as hoped.

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On 12/12/2020 at 14:57, Newfoundfreedom said:

*snip*

That's if there's anywhere left open to play. 

This 😟

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On my days off, sit in my garden behind locked gates, absorbing sun rays, admiring my new plants/flowers, tree blossom and sipping my home brewed beer. 

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6 hours ago, Phil Starr said:

what are you planning for when we get back to gigging? How has your band survived the interruption? Have you planned anything yet?

I'm looking forward to seeing live music again.  My own band hasn't survived for various reasons but COVID was the final straw.  I have to say I'm not missing the band thing at the moment and never really enjoyed gigging - it was just something I had to do to make being in a band make sense.  I have been doing some songwriting and even roped in a singer from a former band to do collaborations and that's something I want to explore ore in the future.

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