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Al Krow

Some VERY good news at last - live music back by the Spring?

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1 hour ago, dave_bass5 said:

Same here. First that i can remember anyway. Our local surgery is very well organised. Same with my local hospitals. I do consider myself lucky though. 

The missus and her NHS colleagues are getting done tomorrow - they're all really happy about it. Means she'll be able to visit her mum for the first time in months.

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Thats a bit premature.  The vaccine protects the recipient from developing symptoms, but it's  not yet been proven to prevent the recipent from passing the infection to a 3rd party. 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-what-to-expect-after-vaccination/what-to-expect-after-your-covid-19-vaccination

Edited by Bassfinger

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Yeah we’ve not seen and are unlikely to see any updates on potential transmission from vaccinated folk yet (and I understand it’s too early to expect any numbers at this stage). I know the advice at my work (NHS hospital site in Scotland) is not to assume that you’re O.K. and to continue to follow precautions etc. 

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2 hours ago, Bassfinger said:

Thats a bit premature.  The vaccine protects the recipient from developing symptoms, but it's  not yet been proven to prevent the recipent from passing the infection to a 3rd party. 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-what-to-expect-after-vaccination/what-to-expect-after-your-covid-19-vaccination

Yeah - fair point.

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9 hours ago, Bassfinger said:

Thats a bit premature.  The vaccine protects the recipient from developing symptoms, but it's  not yet been proven to prevent the recipent from passing the infection to a 3rd party. 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-what-to-expect-after-vaccination/what-to-expect-after-your-covid-19-vaccination

That is the scientists being cautious though. I haven’t seen a reference to any other common vaccine that doesn’t prevent transmission, but who knows with this virus.

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9 minutes ago, nilebodgers said:

That is the scientists being cautious though. I haven’t seen a reference to any other common vaccine that doesn’t prevent transmission, but who knows with this virus.

Yes, the government advice bassfinger links to is mainly concerned with people thinking they are immune from the first injection when the reality is that a few of them may already have an infection, and the immunity isn't really well developed until you've had the second booster.

As to being cautious, scientists will quite rightly only state those things for which they have experimental evidence, so they aren't going to commit to saying how long a novel vaccine will last or that no infection is possible from a vaccinated person. However you are only going to have huge numbers of viral particles in your body if it is actively replicating inside your body and if you have few to no viruses then you are extremely unlikely to spread the disease. If you are immune it is because the virus isn't being allowed to replicate in any numbers. There's a theoretical possibility of transmission but at very low levels approaching zero. If the vaccine is 90% efficient then 10% of the population can still be infected and infectious. It makes sense for infection control to assume that might be you who can still spread the disease which is why the advice is so cautious.

In terms of society though most people who have the vaccine will be extremely unlikely to spread the virus. The probability is that sometime next year we will achieve sufficient herd immunity in the UK to permanently reduce the r-rate below 1 and shortly after to go back to something like normality. I'm neither an optimist of a pessimist so I think that Easter is unlikely but it will happen a couple of months after Easter even with the new variant. Though if the Government fail to put travel restrictions into place it could take longer. 

For me the big question is how many lives can we save between now and then? Do we have the collective will and the informed leadership  to save potentially 100,000 lives? I have hope, polls are showing 75% of us want to have a well thought out plan to reduce infection and only 25% are in denial, we only need the government to back the majority. The 75% will comply and pressure/persuasion will convert some of the rest.

Stay safe out there and look out for each other. That's kind of the BassChat way

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1 hour ago, nilebodgers said:

That is the scientists being cautious though. I haven’t seen a reference to any other common vaccine that doesn’t prevent transmission, but who knows with this virus.

It's the scientists being honest.

Theoretically, it should somewhat reduce - but by no means eliminate - the chances of the vaccinated person passing the virus.

However, that requires long term testing to establish whether that is correct, so they're simply being honest.

Best case scenario is that it brings a moderate reduction in the chances of the vaccinated person still being able to transmit the virus onwards, and that's not merely caution but a pretty well established fact.

The function of the vaccine is to prevent the infection becoming symptomatic in the infected person, and nothing else, in much the same way that wearing my seatbelt helps me out a great deal but does very little for anyone else. Any other effect in reducing the transmission rate is incidental and, at the very best, moderate in effect.

Edited by Bassfinger
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A vaccinated person can still I believe spread it by physical contact - touching a contaminated surface and not washing their hands before having contact with someone who doesn’t have protection. Hopefully getting back to normal won’t also include people forgetting about hygiene. I honestly couldn’t say how many times I’ve seen people leaving a public loo without washing their hands. I usually grip the handle with my coat sleeve.

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15 minutes ago, Basinski said:

A vaccinated person can still I believe spread it by physical contact - touching a contaminated surface and not washing their hands before having contact with someone who doesn’t have protection. Hopefully getting back to normal won’t also include people forgetting about hygiene. I honestly couldn’t say how many times I’ve seen people leaving a public loo without washing their hands. I usually grip the handle with my coat sleeve.

A splash and dash is one thing, but a dump and run even with hand sanitizer 😝

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981 lost to Covid today. So grim.

Roll out of the AZ vaccine can't come fast enough.

Shocking article about retired health professionals being prevented from returning to the front line 'cos they haven't got all the right paperwork - for goodness sake! 

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On 19/12/2020 at 20:48, Al Krow said:

... Means she'll be able to visit her mum for the first time in months.

I think the immunity only kicks in after a few weeks, if I've understood correctly, so it may be prudent to hold off for a little longer, perhaps..? :/

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Whether the glass has been half full or half empty - its just been smashed again having just tried to glue it together

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I fear that even if we ever do get out of this lockdown loop we seem to be in, there will be sod all places left to play in.

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Vaccine roll out really is progressing a pace, which is very encouraging and credit where it's due for that.

I'm sticking with May for pub gigs to start up again. Can't wait!

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5 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

Vaccine roll out really is progressing a pace, which is very encouraging and credit where it's due for that.

I'm sticking with May for pub gigs to start up again. Can't wait!

I wouldn’t be taking that bet. But we shall see.

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Yeah I can see the first half of 2021 being worse and trailing into the end of the year before we might see a positive shift. A vaccine which we’re now being told will get rolled out to everyone so we all have ‘immunity’ makes sense but when it’s a two stage dose and we’re now being instructed to forgo the second dose within the correct timeframe (and see efficacy drop to 50%)  - still it’s half as good as nothing. 

Edited by krispn
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May eh? Who knows. I just wonder how long we'll have limited numbers/ socially distanced gigs for. The days of packed pubs with loud music and singing / shouting will seem a distant memory for some time I feel.

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17 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

Vaccine roll out really is progressing a pace, which is very encouraging and credit where it's due for that.

I'm sticking with May for pub gigs to start up again. Can't wait!

The vaccine news is good, but I suspect not may. If I check out the vaccine roll out and the groups in line to get it, I am due to get it it about mid may, because I am in my 50s. Assuming that all goes well, it means most of the audience aren't due to get it until autumn. And if they do this half dose thing, then it isn't going to be totally effective, so who knows. It would be nice if I can do gigs in the later part of 2021

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Great Vaccine being rolled out - but the people that being vaccinated are not the people going to gigs unless someone has the monopoly on care home gigs.

Vaccine schedule all up in the air with no evidence to support its efficacy, but it will do some good

Hospitals not great at the moment, possibly worse than the initial one and I am sure the waves will continue.

It’s a tough one to call it for May

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Just now, mep said:

The days of packed pubs with loud music and singing / shouting will seem a distant memory for some time I feel.

What are those? Never seen one 😂

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22 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

Vaccine roll out really is progressing a pace, which is very encouraging and credit where it's due for that.

I'm sticking with May for pub gigs to start up again. Can't wait!

I think that you are being as hopelessly optimistic as ever going for May, but the vaccine roll out will eventually pay dividends and hopefully we will be gigging at some point before next winter. Some friends of mine who were supposed to get married last year but put their wedding back to this May, have already been told by the venue that it is unlikely that they can have the full wedding reception / party. 

I do hope that you are right about May as the only gig I have in the diary that hasn't already been definitely cancelled is in May. 

Edited by peteb

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For one, I hope you are wrong about May, the last thing we want is a kickstart of yet another spike. It’s too early. (IMHO)

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