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Al Krow

Some VERY good news at last - live music back by the Spring?

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Problem is, there's gonna be nowhere left to play :( 

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40 minutes ago, MacDaddy said:

Problem is, there's gonna be nowhere left to play :( 

Pfizer social club.

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At least our govt have managed to get hold of enough vaccines for millions of us, which (I understand) unfortunately can't be said for 27 of our immediate neighbours; so we're defo on the right side of the Channel for once.

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Must exercise caution until the final results are through, the roll out plan for these vaccines will take absolutely ages by the time you go for priority cases, NHS staff, key workers etc.

But it’s still decent news

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This is fantastic news, there are two other vaccines which are looking good and should be reporting soon and 10 in phase 3 trials altogether. 

To put this into perspective if the vaccine does turn out to be effective at 90% and Pfizer delivers on 50M doses this year and over a billion next year we are going to be well on the way to the old normal. 90% would mean we'd achieve herd immunity with 75% of the population vaccinated. With an end in sight it makes real sense to look after each other with sensible hygiene and infection control. It would be really beyond sad to lose people when the end is in sight like the poor souls that died in Nov 1918. 

Let's not rush our fences but having predicted the pandemic in Jan and a vaccine by Dec I'd tentatively expect us to be gigging again this time next year and probably by late summer. Let's hope this research stands up but it is looking good. I confess I was tearing up when I heard the news.

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. . . . . . and then those pesky Danish mink come along and ruin the whole plan!!

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12 hours ago, Phil Starr said:

This is fantastic news, there are two other vaccines which are looking good and should be reporting soon and 10 in phase 3 trials altogether. 

To put this into perspective if the vaccine does turn out to be effective at 90% and Pfizer delivers on 50M doses this year and over a billion next year we are going to be well on the way to the old normal. 90% would mean we'd achieve herd immunity with 75% of the population vaccinated. With an end in sight it makes real sense to look after each other with sensible hygiene and infection control. It would be really beyond sad to lose people when the end is in sight like the poor souls that died in Nov 1918. 

Let's not rush our fences but having predicted the pandemic in Jan and a vaccine by Dec I'd tentatively expect us to be gigging again this time next year and probably by late summer. Let's hope this research stands up but it is looking good. I confess I was tearing up when I heard the news.

The future does look a little better today, but only for us in a rich country with socialised healthcare. The virus will still wreak havoc around the world, attacking the poorest and most vulnerable.

Sometimes it’s worth ignoring the negativity, and recognising just how lucky we are to live in this country. 

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7 hours ago, chris_b said:

. . . . . . and then those pesky Danish mink come along and ruin the whole plan!!

There are potentially thousands of viruses that could transfer from animals to humans, apparently. It’s much more likely to happen if we continue to destroy their natural habitats such as the rainforests. 

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9 hours ago, chris_b said:

. . . . . . and then those pesky Danish mink come along and ruin the whole plan!!

Yeah this is a really serious point and could be a significant moment. Moving through another species is probably the most likely way of the virus mutating as it will come into contact with new viruses and particularly any mink corona viruses. I'd have placed anyone who has been to Denmark into mandatory isolation whilst the numbers of infected people is minimal. The chances are that it will come to nothing but it's the sort of event we should be anticipating. 

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I remember thinking back at the start, Pfizer or someone is going to make a lot of money from this. If only my foresight extended to buying some shares!

Assuming this vaccine is as effective as we hope, It'll be interesting to see how things pans out. Pfizer are a business and their main goal should be making money - and they should rightly be compensated for their efforts. From that perspective, I can see them wanting to retain tight control over its production.

However, can they produce enough of it? Would they share the formula with competitors for the sake of the greater good? How will hugely populated countries like India or China deal with it? For example, generic equivalents are popular in India and drug patents are largely ignored. What about the USA, a wealthy country - but many folk unable to afford medical treatment? I'd like to think that Pfizer's management would like to be seen as the company that ended the pandemic, rather than one the profited from it.

I can see things going one of two ways - sufficient numbers globally are vaccinated to end the pandemic, or we end up with an even more divided world. Rich countries have widespread vaccination, while the poorer ones continue to suffer. I imagine that international travellers will need to prove vaccination as a condition of entry.

Interesting times ahead... hopefully be gigging soon!

George

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17 hours ago, Al Krow said:

At least our govt have managed to get hold of enough vaccines for millions of us, which (I understand) unfortunately can't be said for 27 of our immediate neighbours; so we're defo on the right side of the Channel for once.

Well, it is being manufactured in Belgium and has to be stored and transported at minus 70 degrees. I just hope nothing goes wrong at British ferry ports in January to hold anything up. Oh, wait........

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I believe there are a few other companies at advanced stage of producing a vaccine, it’s just that Pfizer were quicker to get to this stage. So they may not have a complete monopoly in the long term. Hopefully will mean that it will be widely available, if larger economies fund them. This may be more likely in one particular country after recent events....

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I understand our much maligned Government has managed to secure 15 million doses, which should be enough for the most vulnerable, the rest can be just left to catch it like normal flu, which will mean, hopefully, life returns to normal

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Interesting times - I had a customer in August who I was chatting to

about the Virus (very abstract, I don't do politics or religion in the shop)

and he intimated that 'we' could expect good news on the vaccine front in November,

but was reluctant to say anymore other that he knew people involved in it.

Who Knows?

😎

 

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42 minutes ago, PaulWarning said:

I understand our much maligned Government has managed to secure 15 million doses, which should be enough for the most vulnerable, the rest can be just left to catch it like normal flu, which will mean, hopefully, life returns to normal

It’ll require at least two doses per person. They don’t know yet how long any immunity from any vaccination will last.

Your comment about the most vulnerable assumes that they know who they are. The big problem with Covid is that you really can’t say - at least with any degree of accuracy - how it’ll affect you. 

I maybe being cynical, but they do keep making these announcements every few months. I suspect part of it is to keep the cash flowing, there’s also obviously the morale boost it gives to people. 

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Just now, Basinski said:

It’ll require at least two doses per person. They don’t know yet how long any immunity from any vaccination will last.

Your comment about the most vulnerable assumes that they know who they are. The big problem with Covid is that you really can’t say - at least with any degree of accuracy - how it’ll affect you. 

I maybe being cynical, but they do keep making these announcements every few months. I suspect part of it is to keep the cash flowing, there’s also obviously the morale boost it gives to people. 

yes 30 million doses secured, the do know who's most vulnerable, the elderly  by far and away, and those with underlying health conditions, those are the ones that are given the flu jab every year, there are very few younger healthy people that have died from Covid 

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2 minutes ago, PaulWarning said:

yes 30 million doses secured, the do know who's most vulnerable, the elderly  by far and away, and those with underlying health conditions, those are the ones that are given the flu jab every year, there are very few younger healthy people that have died from Covid 

Two friends of mine have had it, both are young, both fit and both very healthy with no previous illness. The one suffered a mild stroke a month ago, the result of a blood clot caused by Covid breaking free. The other had it in June and spent over a month in a coma, he’s still unable to return to work.

The elderly and those with previous illnesses are statistically more likely to be seriously affected, but nobody really knows how it will affect them, especially in the long term, you don’t necessarily just get over it. Again, there hasn’t been any data released yet for how long immunity lasts from these vaccines - they’re obviously very new. 

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The cynic in me wonders if using the elderly as guinea pigs is the future of evaluation?

(no loss of tax revenues, less ongoing (care) costs, more housing freed off .... ?)

😎

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8 minutes ago, taunton-hobbit said:

The cynic in me wonders if using the elderly as guinea pigs is the future of evaluation?

(no loss of tax revenues, less ongoing (care) costs, more housing freed off .... ?)

😎

The elderly and impatient musicians.

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Lol! There clearly is lot of negativity - fair enough it's been a brutal year.

As an annoyingly glass-half-full sort of guy - I reckon with the available GP nurses, nightingale hospitals and testing centres geared up for vaccinations we could get the most needy done in a few months - they manage to get the flu jab out don't they without massive difficulty without all this extra resource. The younger / healthier 80% of the population can get on with their lives in the meantime.

Happy to wager a lot of us will be back gigging by May 2021. 

Edited by Al Krow
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3 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

Happy to wager a lot of us will be back gigging by May 2020. 

Journey back in time a side effect?

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