krispn Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 May is an arbitrary date which isn’t backed by anything other than a click bait inspired thread title. The reality is that Covid will continue to spread and we’ll likely need another 18 months (a figure I too have pulled out of my hole) to see any sort of positive dent into this. The disregard over the festive period and the half assed notion that a jab will automatically guarantee protection is foolish and misguided but folks want to have that hope as the last year has been horrendous for many. A lot of folk cannot be trusted to continue to follow guidelines and I’m sure we all have a neighbour, family member or colleague who thinks “Sure I’ll be grand” and carry’s on regardless of the consequences of their actions. I get it though - due to the haphazard way Covid appears to vary in terms of infection/symptoms/severe illness and the sheer variability among those who have caught it folks are ‘justified’ in their own minds about the risk. It’s not about me making a judgment call on other people’s actions but there’s little hope for convincing folk to continue to behave in a socially responsible manner a year in and with high infection rates we’ll continue to see more infections. Vaccines work best when a population isn’t experiencing a pandemic. We’re at the wrong end of this just now and need to claw back lost ground. Optimism is wonderful and it makes a great thread title but come on we’re a long way off and I’d be hard pressed to find anyone who deep down doesn’t see this getting worse before it gets better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steantval Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Al Krow said: Vaccine roll out really is progressing a pace, which is very encouraging and credit where it's due for that. I'm sticking with May for pub gigs to start up again. Can't wait! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave_bass5 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I think the one thing we can be sure of, is music will never die. Gigging will be back, although maybe a lot of us will be playing new venues, and maybe with new band members etc, but it will return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al Krow Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 It's pretty bleak right now, no question. But the darkest moment is just before the dawn. If we were across the Channel, where an unmitigated vaccination fiasco is sadly happening right now as @Dad3353 will be able to confirm, I would agree with you May would be way too early to call it. Only 10% of UK Covid related deaths has happened in the under 65s [source: ONS excess deaths report for 2020] and we're targeting the most vulnerable elder members of the population first quite rightly. The mental health, particularly on kids, and economic impact of keeping the economy locked down is huge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burns-bass Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 54 minutes ago, krispn said: May is an arbitrary date which isn’t backed by anything other than a click bait inspired thread title. The reality is that Covid will continue to spread and we’ll likely need another 18 months (a figure I too have pulled out of my hole) to see any sort of positive dent into this. The disregard over the festive period and the half assed notion that a jab will automatically guarantee protection is foolish and misguided but folks want to have that hope as the last year has been horrendous for many. A lot of folk cannot be trusted to continue to follow guidelines and I’m sure we all have a neighbour, family member or colleague who thinks “Sure I’ll be grand” and carry’s on regardless of the consequences of their actions. I get it though - due to the haphazard way Covid appears to vary in terms of infection/symptoms/severe illness and the sheer variability among those who have caught it folks are ‘justified’ in their own minds about the risk. It’s not about me making a judgment call on other people’s actions but there’s little hope for convincing folk to continue to behave in a socially responsible manner a year in and with high infection rates we’ll continue to see more infections. Vaccines work best when a population isn’t experiencing a pandemic. We’re at the wrong end of this just now and need to claw back lost ground. Optimism is wonderful and it makes a great thread title but come on we’re a long way off and I’d be hard pressed to find anyone who deep down doesn’t see this getting worse before it gets better. This isn’t supported by evidence. If the vaccine programme is successful and the vaccine works as it’s hoped we’ll see deaths fall to double digits by the end of March. Sadly, before then it looks like we’ll be approaching 2,000 deaths a day by early February. Yes, we may need to socially distance for another year and some of our freedoms may be curbed, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuzzie Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Burns-bass said: This isn’t supported by evidence. If the vaccine programme is successful and the vaccine works as it’s hoped we’ll see deaths fall to double digits by the end of March. Sadly, before then it looks like we’ll be approaching 2,000 deaths a day by early February. Yes, we may need to socially distance for another year and some of our freedoms may be curbed, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. That model for your quoted figures is based on a 95% efficacy against the disease and a 60% efficacy against infection from the day the first dose is given..... That is an unrealistic assumption for that study unfortunately 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dad3353 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Al Krow said: ... as @Dad3353 will be able to confirm ... I can neither confirm nor deny, as I don't follow these things quite as closely as some here, it seems. There is, in general, and in my limited vision of things, far less 'panic' about this scourge, and still less agitation on getting everyone vaccinated. There's an ongoing programme, aimed at the most exposed (health staff and care workers...) and vulnerable (those in care homes, or o a very delicate disposition...), but it's certainly not a topic of discussion in the circles I frequent, at all. Everyone I know and see, here, are taking modestly reasonable precautions (it's been a long while since I saw anyone 'out and about' without a mask...), and the authorities take quite a stern line with those flouting the curfew measures, such as the rave event a couple of weeks back. I can't speak for the Big Cities (Our Daughter in a nurse in Paris, and has few concerns...), but I think it's just taking its course, at the pace at which these things take their course. There's no talk of concerts or the like before the summer, at the earliest; more likely autumn, really, and even then on a smaller scale than in the past. Wholesale vaccination is not the most efficient method for eradication, though, as I've mentioned before. 'Ring vaccination' works, as long as one is able to both detect early, and account for the persons in that vicinity. It may be too late for that now, though. Edited January 12, 2021 by Dad3353 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuzzie Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Sorry I should say modelling - not study Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krispn Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 (edited) Don’t let my posts on bc cloud the optimism I embrace daily. I work in mental health and am continually focusing on the positives, trying to encourage and promote positive outlooks and outcomes for the people I work with. My comments are in relation to the prospect of gigs by the Spring which is as baseless a prediction as my suggestion that it’ll be 18 months away. 10 minutes ago, Cuzzie said: That model for your quoted figures is based on a 95% efficacy against the disease and a 60% efficacy against infection from the day the first dose is given..... That is an unrealistic assumption for that study unfortunately I was gonna say that. Having more folk vaccinated is of course a positive but the way the body develops immunity is not an instant thing so if numbers are projected based on immunity on day one and not being a potential carrier on day one the they’re not realistic. Again best case scenario is to vaccinate a population when it’s not in the throes of a pandemic. We have some catching up to do. Edited January 12, 2021 by krispn 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krispn Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 (edited) Nuts though this was a double post and deleted it. Needless to say my numbers/information came from respected medical journals and show that after the initial vaccine (after about 21-28 days) efficacy drops off to about 50% which still has it as a success and higher than other vaccines in circulation where 40% efficacy is considered a success. Edited January 12, 2021 by krispn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ambient Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I guess May might be on the cards, as long as every member of the band is over the age of 80, and you’re playing to audiences also over the age of 80. They’ve put back the second vaccination to three months, so my parents who received their first jab today, will just about have received their second dose. I seriously doubt many of those who either play or attend gigs, will have even received their first vaccination by May. Social distancing will undoubtedly be with us long into 2021. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krispn Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 (edited) Let me reframe my point. Is anyone who had regular gigs prior to this pandemic been getting calls to work the May bank holiday Weekend? Edited January 12, 2021 by krispn 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ambient Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 (edited) Though I’m guessing that by the time May rolls up, we’ll have the fat controller and the daily Mail screaming at us to get back out there, regardless of how many new cases are being diagnosed each day. Edited January 13, 2021 by ambient 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al Krow Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 (edited) 34 minutes ago, krispn said: Let me reframe my point. Is anyone who had regular gigs prior to this pandemic been getting calls to work the May bank holiday Weekend? Got a wedding from last year at the end of May provisionally still in the diary, but they've been in touch about having the option of moving it to August if need be. I doubt very much that pubs, which are currently on their knees, are thinking about booking bands right now! But if @Burns-bass is correct about deaths falling to double digits by the end of March, I think we could see things open up quite quickly thereafter. Edited January 13, 2021 by Al Krow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EBS_freak Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 you’ve got to allow time for the government covid test register to monitor who is going to be allowed in pubs first... of course, it will be world class and so accurate that nobody will be allowed in... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodinblack Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 hour ago, ambient said: I guess May might be on the cards, as long as every member of the band is over the age of 80, and you’re playing to audiences also over the age of 80. So you are ok if you are a shadows tribute then? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave_bass5 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 hour ago, ambient said: I guess May might be on the cards, as long as every member of the band is over the age of 80, and you’re playing to audiences also over the age of 80. This was our normal audience as we played a lot of social clubs. I expect the memberships have dropped a bit since than 😔 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ambient Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Woodinblack said: So you are ok if you are a shadows tribute then? A socially distanced, mask wearing Shadows tribute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krispn Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 (edited) @Burns-bass Not the original source but this BMJ article references some of the material I was referring to and basing my opinions on https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n18 To be fair the title of the thread doesn’t appear to be based on any evidence either other than maybe optimism that some carried over dates for a wedding gig come off in Spring 2021. The evidence that I’m basing my opinions on are related to a single dose administration of a two dose vaccine. The extended delay to the second dose basically means it’s being used ‘off license’ ergo not within the administration guidelines from the pharmaceutical companies. If you were on a course of antibiotics and told it’s a seven day course but were only given three days worth and told the other four days doses would be given in three months you might question the reasoning and it’s efficacy. While not the same thing it shouldn’t be dismissed. The vaccine does not offer complete immunity nor prevent people from spreading Covid for a significant period. I’m not sure if this is factored into the projected numbers Edited January 13, 2021 by krispn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuzzie Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 hours ago, Al Krow said: Got a wedding from last year at the end of May provisionally still in the diary, but they've been in touch about having the option of moving it to August if need be. I doubt very much that pubs, which are currently on their knees, are thinking about booking bands right now! But if @Burns-bass is correct about deaths falling to double digits by the end of March, I think we could see things open up quite quickly thereafter. 5 hours ago, krispn said: @Burns-bass Not the original source but this BMJ article references some of the material I was referring to and basing my opinions on https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n18 That’s one of the articles talking about it. At the risk of quoting myself and talking about myself in the 3rd person, Cuzzie’s point in reference to death reduction... 7 hours ago, Cuzzie said: That model for your quoted figures is based on a 95% efficacy against the disease and a 60% efficacy against infection from the day the first dose is given..... That is an unrealistic assumption for that study unfortunately This is from this article https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4958 Now you can look at the headline reduction figure and make a prediction, or look at the detail as to how they calculated it and assess whether or not it is what is actually happening. It’s human nature to believe the opinion or part of an opinion or statement we want to hear, but unfortunately I am part of the optimism police and i have to critically appraise evidence and figures as part of my job. I predicted the 21-28 day schedule would be elongated, and I also have said that it won’t surprise me if the 2 vaccines are mixed and they say that’s ok - on no evidence of course........ We all want as many tools in our box as possible to fight this, and some protection is better than none, but even the greatest optimism needs some form of realism just as the greatest pessimism needs some optimism 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maude Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 8 hours ago, Al Krow said: I doubt very much that pubs, which are currently on their knees, are thinking about booking bands right now! But if @Burns-bass is correct about deaths falling to double digits by the end of March, I think we could see things open up quite quickly thereafter. We had this from a pub that has been trying to book us for the last 12 months. "Can we pencil in something for later in the year? Things hopefully may be back to relative normality then and I'm wanting to fill my diary." In March last year he booked us for 27th June 2020, and in July he booked us for 14th Nov 2020. Obviously these didn't happen. Maybe one of lifes optimists, or maybe just niave, but at least he's eager to get bands back in his pub. In hoping when pubs can put on bands with no restrictions that there'll be a huge demand for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krispn Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 I’ve no doubt that bars will be mad keen to get back to normal business. The bar we do our regular gigs at is a central Edinburgh ‘tourist trap’ which also has a strong local crowd too. It’s an Irish bar, offers student discount and in a great location and is busy every night. We play enough fiddle-de-dee to keep the crowd happy and suit the vibe of the place - you can imagine the managers are dying to get back open. With the 6 Nations and St Patrick’s Day being big events on their calendar early in the year we’ve already been ‘penciled in’ to play those dates but we all know it’s unlikely. The bar can generate between 15-20k on those big sport Saturdays - thats one days turnover! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taunton-hobbit Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 (edited) Some VERY good news at last - live music back by Spring 2023? - Suggestion for new thread title .................. 😎 Edited January 13, 2021 by taunton-hobbit Living in the past ? (corrected) 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al Krow Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 Haha - you're very welcome to sit on your ars*e till then. I certainly won't be! 😁 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EBS_freak Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Al Krow said: Haha - you're very welcome to sit on your ars*e till then. I certainly won't be! 😁 Quick! Call the lockdown police! 😜 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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