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Al Krow

Some VERY good news at last - live music back by the Spring?

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"there will be live music, but not I think as we once knew it."

1 hour ago, Al Krow said:

Funniest thing I've heard all day.

1 hour ago, ambient said:

I think it’s incredibly sad personally.

As statements go, it is, but only for sheer pessimism on display.

Edited by Al Krow

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The only pub gig in May might be at the Queen Vic in Eastenders, they appear to be open as normal during this current lockdown.

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10 hours ago, Al Krow said:

Nope, straight up (for some pub gigs anyway).

That's 16 weeks away. A lot can improve in that time, as crap as things seem right now.

We have the best vaccination programme in Europe here in the UK, by some margin; and one of the best in the world.

You mean they are as good as our "World beating" test and trace system? You are Mat Handcock and I claim my £10.

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11 minutes ago, mikel said:

You mean they are as good as our "World beating" test and trace system? You are Mat Handcock and I claim my £10.

Doh! Not really that difficult to understand what a vaccination is and that it is not the same thing as test and trace, I would have thought? 

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7 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

Doh! Not really that difficult to understand what a vaccination is and that it is not the same thing as test and trace, I would have thought? 

Errrr it’s incredibly difficult to understand and quantify what a vaccination is, how it works, how effective it will be especially against a moving mutating target and once it is on board/partially on board mainly to a population that won’t be going out and about to gigs etc how this can have an effect on transmissions, surges and knock effects to health systems and people’s treatment

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Yup. Brexit was a brilliant idea and Covid will all be over and done with by May. 

There's optimistic, and there's just plain delusional. 

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11 hours ago, Dad3353 said:

Well, they gave up bear-bating, and public hangings. Tyburn used to be a favourite picnic spot, on 'Hanging Days'. No more, though. 

JGFm4fc.jpg

Hanging was never the same after they brought in VAR.

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Back in the days of the polio epidemic, the Ministry of Health just  vaccinated everybody

- test & trace is a new toy.

‘A matter of commonsense’: the Coventry poliomyelitis epidemic 1957 and the British public

I stumbled across this, which is a very good (& somewhat long)

history of the polio epidemic in the 50's

It takes a bit of reading, but there are chilling similarities

in the way that the authorities treated the situation.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5652641/

😎

 

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6 minutes ago, ambient said:

Thanks for that, You beat me to it, I was just about to say if vaccination was so easy to understand please pen a post starting with Jenner’s discovery in the 18th century through till now encompassing cellular and humoral  immunity, as well as the different types of vaccines, who can and cannot have the different types and the brave new world of mRNA vaccines, including the lessons  the last time mRNA technology was used allied to consistency of how data is measured and presented aligned to predicting how it can work in people without copy pasting a 14 year olds wiki post.

it really is not an easy subject to tease out

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9 minutes ago, Cuzzie said:

Thanks for that, You beat me to it, I was just about to say if vaccination was so easy to understand please pen a post starting with Jenner’s discovery in the 18th century through till now encompassing cellular and humoral  immunity, as well as the different types of vaccines, who can and cannot have the different types and the brave new world of mRNA vaccines, including the lessons  the last time mRNA technology was used allied to consistency of how data is measured and presented aligned to predicting how it can work in people without copy pasting a 14 year olds wiki post.

it really is not an easy subject to tease out

This also mentions they’re using some rather controversial calculations to stretch the period between the two jabs. Chris Whitty mentioned last night, immunity from the vaccination isn’t permanent, and probably only last four or five months. That suggests a slope in immunity, so stretching the gap between the two to three months might mean that the second will have less affect at three months, rather than at three months as the makers and everyone else recommend.

They mentioned on News at Ten last night, that - I think it was the BMA - were writing to the government asking them to think again about the current strategy, whereby it seems to be a competition between us and the rest of the world, over the number of injections given - a one sided competition, I’m not sure anyone else is playing. 

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(IMO) The key factor in ANY campaign is to keep the public ( i.e. us ) on side -

I'm not sure that any good is actually achieved by all these public slanging matches. 

😎

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2 minutes ago, taunton-hobbit said:

(IMO) The key factor in ANY campaign is to keep the public ( i.e. us ) on side -

I'm not sure that any good is actually achieved by all these public slanging matches. 

😎

It’s not a public slanging match against the vaccine, it’s countering an opinion on the speed of returning to ‘normal’ life based on facts.

11 minutes ago, ambient said:

This also mentions they’re using some rather controversial calculations to stretch the period between the two jabs. Chris Whitty mentioned last night, immunity from the vaccination isn’t permanent, and probably only last four or five months. That suggests a slope in immunity, so stretching the gap between the two to three months might mean that the second will have less affect at three months, rather than at three months as the makers and everyone else recommend.

They mentioned on News at Ten last night, that - I think it was the BMA - were writing to the government asking them to think again about the current strategy, whereby it seems to be a competition between us and the rest of the world, over the number of injections given - a one sided competition, I’m not sure anyone else is playing. 

The only thing I can think of is that the vaccination Merry go round will start up again with the flu vaccine season, so effectively some people will get 3 or even 4 doses this year, and that may well help

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11 minutes ago, Cuzzie said:

It’s not a public slanging match against the vaccine, it’s countering an opinion on the speed of returning to ‘normal’ life based on facts.

The only thing I can think of is that the vaccination Merry go round will start up again with the flu vaccine season, so effectively some people will get 3 or even 4 doses this year, and that may well help

They do reckon that you’ll need at least one vaccination per year. So you’re probably right.

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6 minutes ago, Cuzzie said:

It’s not a public slanging match against the vaccine, it’s countering an opinion on the speed of returning to ‘normal’ life based on facts.

The only thing I can think of is that the vaccination Merry go round will start up again with the flu vaccine season, so effectively some people will get 3 or even 4 doses this year, and that may well help

Soz, badly put - I wasn't implying 'against' the virus, merely that we have gathered a lot of scientists all declaring that everything the 'other' mob says/ does   is wrong / misguided / ineffective / dangerous /  I realise this stuff goes on all the time in the scientific community, but the common good is not best served by having the debates on the front pages on a daily basis (imo / ymmv)

😎

 

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1 hour ago, Al Krow said:

Doh! Not really that difficult to understand what a vaccination is and that it is not the same thing as test and trace, I would have thought? 

My point, which you obviously missed, was that making spurious claims regarding the "World beating" quality of anything is very much propaganda until proven to be so. As recent Covid history in Britain has shown.

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Optimism is a wonderful thing but I've mentioned before it needs to be tempered with some realism. Look at all those poor folk who, right up until midday on Wednesday, were expecting Trump to remain as president. What is their fall back - It's still a fix? He didn't lie to us? Deep State? and other self talk to convince themselves that they're right and everyone else is wrong?

@Al Krow I'd be keen to know what inside track you have on this fixed date of the end of May? To me it reads a bit like the old Donald Trump 'double down'! The whole world, I think, can acknowledge the collective effort to get a vaccine developed and out to the public as well as the logistical task of getting it distributed. What raises concerns for some of us and I'm in this camp is we're effectively looking at giving the vaccine 'off license' and it's not really, nor could it really have been, the panacea that it's been promised due to what appears to be the evolving strain and this off license use. I'd be surprised if the Boris Government don't suggest the cold snap is another goverement plan to stop the virus in it's tracks and will somehow lay claim to the weather as part of their strategic roll out across the country!

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The BMC are requesting they think again about increasing the gap between the two vaccinations. Apparently there is no research into how effective giving the second jab after three months rather than three weeks will be. It might just be a complete waste of time, and ultimately end up setting us back.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/23/doctors-call-shorter-gap-pfizer-covid-vaccine-doses-uk

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I find the idea of pre marking a time as when things can open up again rather stupid. Stuff should open up when it is safe to open up, not at some prefixed date of when things should open up. We have had a much harder time of it than pretty well all other countries. Just do the hard thing now so we don't have to keep dragging it out

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36 minutes ago, mikel said:

My point, which you obviously missed, was that making spurious claims regarding the "World beating" quality of anything is very much propaganda until proven to be so. As recent Covid history in Britain has shown.

Agreed - I don't care if we beat the world or if we are so f'ing special compared to all other countries, I care about the results. The results are currently we are behind everyone, so we clearly are f'ing special. What is important that we do the thing that helps us get out of this, and not care what it looks like

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3 minutes ago, Woodinblack said:

I find the idea of pre marking a time as when things can open up again rather stupid. Stuff should open up when it is safe to open up, not at some prefixed date of when things should open up. We have had a much harder time of it than pretty well all other countries. Just do the hard thing now so we don't have to keep dragging it out

It's why I've asked a few times as other's may have too where does this end of May idea come from?

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According to the online covid vaccine calculator I'm not in any vulnerable group, and am due my second dose in December (at the latest).

So even if gigs are vaccine certificate only, it will still be next year before I can go.

All speculation though, who knows what's gonna happen? 🙂

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2 hours ago, krispn said:

It's why I've asked a few times as other's may have too where does this end of May idea come from?

Plucked from someone’s nether regions.

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2 hours ago, krispn said:

It's why I've asked a few times as other's may have too where does this end of May idea come from?

What, is Teresa May retiring?

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