Some VERY good news at last - live music back by the Spring?

[ambient]

On a much lighter note, here’s my cat seeing snow for the first time - she’s only 7 months old. She hated it, she howled until I picked her up and took her back inside.

[yorks5stringer]

8 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

From detailed analysis of ONS figures: 

Looking at 2nd wave deaths in the UK (taking week 45 = Nov 2nd as approximate base line): 85.1% of deaths have occurred in the 70+ age group.

Lockdown 1 without a vaccine took 3.5 months from March 23rd to July 4th to get the rolling average weekly death rate from Covid-19 to around 50 or less.

Most of the 70+ age group should be vaccinated over the next 3 to 4 months, if not sooner, and combined with current lockdown measures and moving out of winter should, together, make a very big difference.

Whilst it's anecdotal / "best guess" territory, folk who have to put substantial sums of their savings on the line and will have done a fair bit of homework, are not shying away from investing in pubs right now. Check the Mitchells & Butlers' share price since the beginning of Nov if you're interested.

The above is the basis for my optimism / "educated best guess" (which I will happily admit it obviously can't be anything more than, at this stage) for the end of May pub / live music reopening.

Let's hope for the sake of the music and hospitality industry, both of which I am very much deeply involved in, that optimism proves to be nearer the mark than some of the doom on this thread. Time will, of course, tell. 

I noticed on the news on Friday evening they spoke to a Nurse who said it had taken 8 staff to turn a patient over. They must have been some size.....( not suggesting only the old and obese are dying) but it made me think.

[taunton-hobbit]

It worries me that some folk are actually making light of the fact that they have gained substantial bodyweight over the last twelve months - surely this is asking for future problems ? (diabetes / cholesterol / heart attack / etc etc ) . Being bored ain't a good reason to live on pizza and crisps ..............

😎

[Cuzzie]

7 minutes ago, yorks5stringer said:

I noticed on the news on Friday evening they spoke to a Nurse who said it had taken 8 staff to turn a patient over. They must have been some size.....( not suggesting only the old and obese are dying) but it made me think.

It’s not purely about size - having people ventilated face down has been seen to help - so to turn a patient 180 who is ventilated - someone controls the breathing tube so that doesn’t fall out, someone to control the head and neck, trunk, limbs, lines of drugs going in which will be multiple so they don’t pull out, change the sheets as the roll around and share the weight evenly amongst people so they do not get injured as it will happen multiple times.

Average male is 70-75kg - rig up a 6ft sandbag/guy in human form at this weight and you will see how it is!

[ambient]

9 minutes ago, yorks5stringer said:

I noticed on the news on Friday evening they spoke to a Nurse who said it had taken 8 staff to turn a patient over. They must have been some size.....( not suggesting only the old and obese are dying) but it made me think.

They have to be careful with the various tubes and lines, to make sure they don’t get twisted or pulled out, there’s also someone watching the patient’s monitors. That’s why it takes so many.

[EBS_freak]

7 minutes ago, taunton-hobbit said:

Being bored ain't a good reason to live on pizza and crisps ..............

😎

No - but being skint and processed food and pizza being a cheaper means of feeding a family is.

[Woodinblack]

34 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

Lockdown 1 without a vaccine took 3.5 months from March 23rd to July 4th to get the rolling average weekly death rate from Covid-19 to around 50 or less.

Most of the 70+ age group should be vaccinated over the next 3 to 4 months, if not sooner, and combined with current lockdown measures and moving out of winter should, together, make a very big difference.

So 3.5 months to get the rate down from less than it is now to 50 or less. Now we have a vaccine which may help (assuming they don't keep going against manufacturers advice on how to use it) that will reduce some deaths, but also a more virilant strain. And after the 3.5 months they didn't open up live music in pubs.

 

So another 3.5 months, maybe those last two will cancel each other out, but the 80+ age group in general aren't the largest group of gig goers, so I think those figures have made me less positive about indoor gigs.

Maybe in the summer, outdoor gigs might come back. if that happens, I will be happy for that (as I like outdoor gigs anyway), although for our gigs that tend to have dancing, maybe not. 

I believe gigs will come back this year, but not in the way they were at the start of last year yet..

 

[MacDaddy]

maybe a question for another thread, but... would it be a breach of employment law/equal opportunities (etc) if in UK job adverts for musicians, it was requested that applicants also have an EU (country) passport?

[ambient]

15 minutes ago, MacDaddy said:

maybe a question for another thread, but... would it be a breach of employment law/equal opportunities (etc) if in UK job adverts for musicians, it was requested that applicants also have an EU (country) passport?

I don’t think so. I’ve seen quite a few adverts for various things, where they’re make similar stipulations. There was one advert mentioned in the press recently, where it was a film advertising for an actor. 
 

This might give some explanation as to why.

https://m.facebook.com/derek.Richard/photos/a.431433313586/10157827678568587/?type=3&source=57&ref=m_notif&notif_t=feedback_reaction_generic

 

[Ian McFly]

3 hours ago, PaulWarning said:

if it stops people having to go into hospital and dying why can't we just treat it like normal flu? life doesn't stop for that

This!

We’re going to live with Covid most likely forever, so we need to adapt our lifestyles to it. Life WILL have to resume. Hopefully vaccine will decrease the risks of catching it and dying.... but in reality, it’ll still kill some fragile people. Just like the flu does. 
I was reading an article from a scientist who said that yes, Covid will still kill, but if the number of deaths per year can reach a number similar to flu deaths, then the society will “accept” it and life will get back to a sort of normality. 
 

[MacDaddy]

26 minutes ago, Ian McFly said:

This!

We’re going to live with Covid most likely forever, so we need to adapt our lifestyles to it. Life WILL have to resume. Hopefully vaccine will decrease the risks of catching it and dying.... but in reality, it’ll still kill some fragile people. Just like the flu does. 
I was reading an article from a scientist who said that yes, Covid will still kill, but if the number of deaths per year can reach a number similar to flu deaths, then the society will “accept” it and life will get back to a sort of normality. 
 

By May? 😝

[Lozz196]

28 minutes ago, Ian McFly said:

This!

We’re going to live with Covid most likely forever, so we need to adapt our lifestyles to it. Life WILL have to resume. Hopefully vaccine will decrease the risks of catching it and dying.... but in reality, it’ll still kill some fragile people. Just like the flu does. 
I was reading an article from a scientist who said that yes, Covid will still kill, but if the number of deaths per year can reach a number similar to flu deaths, then the society will “accept” it and life will get back to a sort of normality. 
 

I think this is it, it will become another on the list that is managed but will still sadly take lives, it’s probably the best we can hope for, as well as imo the most realistic outlook.

[skej21]

4 hours ago, PaulWarning said:

if it stops people having to go into hospital and dying why can't we just treat it like normal flu? life doesn't stop for that

Because we can’t treat it like normal flu. With normal flu, we vaccinate the elderly to protect them against it annually. That vaccine is effective, and is also given to those caring for the vulnerable. That means transmission is a lot lower and risk is lower (hence why a small number experience severe of fatal symptoms). 
 

Until there’s a similar vaccine for Covid, we can’t deal with it in the same way. Accepting deaths because we don’t try to protect the vulnerable in the absence in of a vaccine, IMO isn’t the same.

[Bridgehouse]

1 minute ago, skej21 said:

Because we can’t treat it like normal flu. With normal flu, we vaccinate the elderly to protect them against it annually. That vaccine is effective, and is also given to those caring for the vulnerable. That means transmission is a lot lower and risk is lower (hence why a small number experience severe of fatal symptoms). 
 

Until there’s a similar vaccine for Covid, we can’t deal with it in the same way. Accepting deaths because we don’t try to protect the vulnerable in the absence in of a vaccine, IMO isn’t the same.

There is a similar vaccine. In fact, the ones released so far are more effective.

 

Flu is an RNA virus just like SARS-Cov-2, but so far flu seems to mutate quicker and more extremely. 
 

If anything Cov-2 is more like mumps or rubella which are also RNA viruses. 
 

Most RNA viruses mutate to be more transmissible but less deadly - flu tends to be the same but mutates in odd ways. 
 

We have vaccines. We have a strategy. At some point Cov-19 will become a background illness which kills a small number of people. The advances in treatment alone have brought the death rate down. However, when that will be is the unknown.

[mikel]

10 minutes ago, Lozz196 said:

I think this is it, it will become another on the list that is managed but will still sadly take lives, it’s probably the best we can hope for, as well as imo the most realistic outlook.

Well possibly, but I dont recall front line hospital staff being killed when treating Flu cases. There are also covid victims in their 20s, with no underlying health issues, on long term ventilators. Its not simply another Flu like illness.

[Cuzzie]

Combination of all of the above mentioned - novel virus, its behaviour is strange with a cytokine (inflammatory) storm which upsets the delicate balance of the body, learning how best to treat it.

Viruses in general want to live with us, the more evil virus kills the host and dies with it, mutations will happen, and what we want is a slightly naughty virus that eventually behaves like flu, but we have the means to treat each variant of illness a person gets the correct way and quickly to prevent preventable death and long term symptoms-that will take a while whilst Mother Nature and we sort it out.

It’s unprecedented times especially with massive media presence and a culture where we behave like verruca salt and want everything now.

When this first came out everyone was saying how bad the lockdown period of a couple of months is (it is BTW for mental health etc.) Tom Jones, who always has a story said basically, its tough, but i had to shield for 2 years with TB as a child in my village - its not far off that now

[EBS_freak]

Quick Q, how many people on BC are virologists?

[Woodinblack]

2 hours ago, MacDaddy said:

maybe a question for another thread, but... would it be a breach of employment law/equal opportunities (etc) if in UK job adverts for musicians, it was requested that applicants also have an EU (country) passport?

No - its no like you are being discriminated on for your race, it is a requirement for a job, such as them saying you need to hold a driving license for a driving job. If they need someone who can easily get in the EU, I would assume it was essential.

Currently if you have a european passport and british settled status, youre in the best of both worlds for travel, you would have all the rights we all used to have. 

[Cuzzie]

3 minutes ago, EBS_freak said:

Quick Q, how many people on BC are virologists?

Not a virologist, may have studied a little of it, but am a medic - hence trying to keep it fairly simple (no offence meant) and i am also a fairly simple chap

Edited January 24, 2021 by Cuzzie

[Al Krow]

18 hours ago, neilp said:

Unfortunately for the "plucky Brits " story, there absolutely is a playbook. WHO has one that was followed by New Zealand. Anyone know what the current COVID stats are in New Zealand?

You raise an interesting and very good point. Be good to remind us exactly what NZ did to deliver their success?

It's definitely a nice soundbite, but is it practically do-able? In particular I wonder whether it would have been possible to do the same here and in mainland Europe, bearing in mind (i) that NZ is literally the last stop on journeys as opposed to being a through-fare and (ii) that NZ has just 1% of the population of the UK and EU combined which together were covered by the freedom of movement rules until 31 Dec. Obviously the UK is no longer constrained by the FoM rules post 1 Jan 2021 so potentially has more ability to implement a NZ style solution, but the UK is still part of the common travel area with Eire (which interestingly has the approx. same population as NZ but has also not adopted the NZ solution) and we are therefore indirectly part of the wider EU travel area still.

Just wondering if theirs was such an easy and obvious solution why has no one here (or in the EU) still thought about adopting the NZ model?

Edited January 24, 2021 by Al Krow

[Al Krow]

3 minutes ago, Cuzzie said:

Not a virologist, may have studied a little of it, but am a medic - hence trying to keep it fairly simple (no offence meant) and i am also a fairly simple chap

And it's really good to have your wisdom on board for sure, chappie.

Don't think we have too much in the way of that level of bass playing expertise EBS although there are a few medics (including Cuzzie) and others who are very involved with the NHS (e.g. my missus is having to deal with massive fall-out from Covid as a child psychiatrist).

[Lozz196]

24 minutes ago, mikel said:

Well possibly, but I dont recall front line hospital staff being killed when treating Flu cases. There are also covid victims in their 20s, with no underlying health issues, on long term ventilators. Its not simply another Flu like illness.

No, what I meant was, in time hopefully that will be the case, when it can be managed better. Of course at present it’s still deadly and needs to be treated so. Remember it’s less than a year old and already the vaccine is available, hopefully in time it will be an illness that can be managed once we have a greater knowledge on how to effectively treat it. We’ve made huge advances in a short space of time, and I think the thoughts that it will always be here are realistic, let’s hope with greater knowledge it can be controlled and maintained in the way other killer diseases/infections have been over the years.

[Lozz196]

26 minutes ago, Cuzzie said:

Combination of all of the above mentioned - novel virus, its behaviour is strange with a cytokine (inflammatory) storm which upsets the delicate balance of the body, learning how best to treat it.

Viruses in general want to live with us, the more evil virus kills the host and dies with it, mutations will happen, and what we want is a slightly naughty virus that eventually behaves like flu, but we have the means to treat each variant of illness a person gets the correct way and quickly to prevent preventable death and long term symptoms-that will take a while whilst Mother Nature and we sort it out.

It’s unprecedented times especially with massive media presence and a culture where we behave like verruca salt and want everything now.

When this first came out everyone was saying how bad the lockdown period of a couple of months is (it is BTW for mental health etc.) Tom Jones, who always has a story said basically, its tough, but i had to shield for 2 years with TB as a child in my village - its not far off that now

That’s a good point about TB, well done @Cuzzie & Sir Tom.

[Cuzzie]

2 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

And it's really good to have your wisdom on board for sure, chappie.

Don't think we have too much in the way of that level of bass playing expertise EBS although there are a few medics (including Cuzzie) and others who are very involved with the NHS (e.g. my missus is having to deal with massive fall-out from Covid as a child psychiatrist).

That will be horrific (not the bass playing) its generations of all ages swathed in rubbish room this, but the kids will suffer more

[Woodinblack]

26 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

It's definitely a nice soundbite, but is it practically do-able? In particular I wonder whether it would have been possible to do the same here and in mainland Europe, bearing in mind (i) that NZ is literally the last stop on journeys as opposed to being a through-fare and (ii) that NZ has just 1% of the population of the UK and EU combined which together were covered by the freedom of movement rules until 31 Dec

Absolutely no part of freedom of movement meant that you couldn't shut all the borders if you have a reason to do so. Several european states did. 

No, we just chose not to because we didn't want to.

More relevant, why didn't we impliment quarantine like australia did? You come in, 14 days enforced quarantine and if you break it you face huge fines and prison, and they are checking.

26 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

Obviously the UK is no longer constrained by the FoM rules post 1 Jan 2021 so potentially has more ability to implement a NZ style solution,

Again, completely irrelevant, we could have shut them. its in the European treaties as we were sovereign independent countries.

But we won't

26 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

But the UK is still part of the common travel area with Eire (which interestingly has the approx. same population as NZ but has also not adopted the NZ solution) and we are therefore indirectly part of the wider EU travel area still.

Just wondering if theirs was such an easy and obvious solution why has no one here (or in the EU) still thought about adopting the NZ model?

Because they didn't want to because of our political make up. We wanted to keep things open for economic reasons, which is why our economy is still not working and NZ (and most of asias) is.