Who else finds this both hugely pessimistic and more than a little terrifying?!?!

[beardybass]

I found this today, during one of my hugely productive procrastination sessions. Depressed me fairly thoroughly! How about you guys?


[b]Anthony Jackson
[/b]:
It’s always fascinating to force the future to show itself. You can imagine anything you want, think hard about it, and convince yourself that it’s an accurate prediction. So: My turn.

Within 20 years only a handful of large recording studios will remain, catering only to orchestras and other large ensembles. Midsize rooms will disappear with the proliferation of moderately priced, super-high-fidelity, solid-state recorders that can be used in the home; the present dominance of hard disk will end, barely a decade after it destroyed magnetic tape. Session work will continue to be done, but remote Internet recording, already increasing, will dominate music production, and iTunes and illegal live recording will make it almost impossible for musicians to prosper from their work. Nightclubs catering to live music will largely cease to exist. Musicians will find themselves relegated to local and statesponsored “performance organizations” and university-funded groups. An era of threadbare culture, already descending, will worsen. Case in point: the appallingly corrupt American Idol and Making the Band (where there is no “band,” and the “singers”—few if any of whom can sing without the intervention of Auto- Tune—are clearly unconcerned about music, only with thrusting asses and spastic dance steps) point to a future that will worsen before it improves.

None will escape this scenario—including us. Only the strongest, in any field of art, will prosper. Live music will never end, but the tradition of musicians, musicians everywhere—in small clubs, large clubs, halls, outdoor venues, summer jazz festivals, live TV—will not return in abundance until our popular culture begins to evolve again. Twenty years? Maybe, but I think it may be longer. Still, I sincerely believe good times for artists will return. Hypothetical advice to all of us players: Play well, to give our instrument its best chance to survive this era, where a “musician” is too often anyone who can press a PLAY button

[Kiwi]

He's being more than a little provocative. He's just picking up on current trends and extrapolating them to an illogical extreme. He hasn't factored in the demand for live music, for a start. He's presumed that there is no demand and the current trends will just continue to the point of collapse.

If anything the music industry is being reclaimed by musicians through the use of ever cheaper recording technology. The record companies and distributors no longer guard access to the music purchasing public! There will still be a demand for recorded music and people will still want to see the artists live too. There will be more artists to choose from if anything - good, bad and a bit crap. But thanks to the internet, word of mouth will increasingly become be the way of marketing. Take Sharay Reed for example - a couple of youtube clips and people are picking up on his playing.

[Beedster]

[quote name='Crazykiwi' post='474759' date='Apr 29 2009, 07:49 AM']He's being more than a little provocative. He's just picking up on current trends and extrapolating them to an illogical extreme. He hasn't factored in the demand for live music, for a start. He's presumed that there is no demand and the current trends will just continue to the point of collapse.

If anything the music industry is being reclaimed by musicians through the use of ever cheaper recording technology. The record companies and distributors no longer guard access to the music purchasing public! There will still be a demand for recorded music and people will still want to see the artists live too. There will be more artists to choose from if anything - good, bad and a bit crap. But thanks to the internet, word of mouth will increasingly become be the way of marketing. Take Sharay Reed for example - a couple of youtube clips and people are picking up on his playing.[/quote]

+1, if the best scientists in the World can't agree on global warming (and that based on thousands of research projects), I'm not too worried about one musicians predictions. As you say, he's taking a momentary analysis and extrapolating in the extreme. It's a bit like saying that if a person in Mexico gets flu the whole World is gonna die, which if you read some of this morning's papers seems to be what some people are thinking

[Jean-Luc Pickguard]

I'd like to predict a backlash against soulless autotuned machine music. Not sure my prediction will come true, but it'll be nice if it did.

I heard akon the other day - he's so autotuned he sounds like a dalek. I have to wonder whether he was signed up & marketed as a result of a trading-places style bet at the record company.

[Beedster]

[quote name='Jean-Luc Pickguard' post='474811' date='Apr 29 2009, 09:37 AM']I'd like to predict a backlash against soulless autotuned machine music.[/quote]

One potential upside of an economic recession/depression perhaps?

[BigBeefChief]

You mean I won't be able to make loads of money from playing music anymore????

Talk about turning my life upside-down!

[51m0n]

Oooooh scare mongery, classic FUD.

AJ talks out of his butt! <shock horror>

Sorry that kind of ranting tosh makes my blood boil, and AJ has done enough of it to make me no longer take any notice of anything he says. Remember his rants about slapping and not using an ERB etc etc - tw@t!

Great player though. Needs to shut up and play!

Live music at a grass roots level is thriving. I've seen it first hand. Staggering young players who really can play, can read on their instruments if they wish, can compose and play to an audience. Brilliant. He should get out more.

There will always be people who prefer programmed/electronica. Excellent! Nothing says we cant play bass on that too (Doug Wimbish made a name for himself doing just that)

There have been 'talent' shows for as long as there has been Saturday evening TV (Opportunity Knocks anyone), it will continue to be ignored by real music lovers.

Home recording is getting cheaper and cheaper. But, and its a huuuuge but, you can not beat a great live room. Sorry thats where its at. Only a serious studio can get the sound of a fantastic live room, cos they are huge and tend to have really nice acoustic work done to them too. No one in a bedroom near you is going to have a Neve console, and they really do sound that good. Most home studios spend less on mics and outboard than a serious studio spends on wiring and yes that makes a massive difference too. Upshot is if you want to record live music really well you need a serious studio. If you want to record a really really great demo that is releasable you can do it at home (but it really will cost you a lot in both cash and time). Lastly, and this is what counts most, a serious studio should have seriously good technical staff, and I would trust a great engineer to get a great sound in his studio working his way over anyone in a bedroom. I'm not saying it cant be done, but I am saying in all probability even now, and looking forward 30 years from now, the professionals will still have the upper hand, and it will count.

Right now mp3 is good enough. That will not last. As bandwidth and harddisk space and solid state RAM increase in size people will realise that better sound quality makes for a better experience again (witness the HQ button on youtube). Then the better recorded material will stand tall.

My concern is actually how long we will have to wait for over compression at the mastering phase to peter out. Its very seductive, however I was listening to some old cds yesterday, and yes I had to crank them up a bit (what a pity), but the drums (particularly the kick) sounded amazing for it! I think this trend is actually doing more damage than the entire mp3 issue myself....

Edited April 29, 2009 by 51m0n

[beardybass]

Good to see everyone being so positive about this like! See that's the upside of places like this, there are people like 51mon who can say, "this guy talks cack, ignore him!" Of course I'm aware of his playing, but I've never come across any of his rants before, if they're all like this, I'll not bother eh!

If you think about it, it's really fairly irresponsible of the man to be saying things like this in an internationally recognise publication! People of his stature should be setting a positive example for younger players, not telling them that their dreams will go unfulfilled and they'll have to work in Morrisons (I'm paraphrasing slightly here)

I also believe the future of live music is safe, I know I'll never get sick of gigs (playing and watching) and I'm sure as hell not the only one!

[budget bassist]

I highly doubt live music will just disappear, yeah some places like the astoria are closing, and it is sad, but people will always want to go to gigs, big or small, and people will always find a way to play, legal or not.

And what is he talking about? "solid state recorders" ending the dominance of hard disc recorders?? They're the same thing! Obviously a man that knows not of what he speaks. Although if he means portable recorders... i know what i'd rather use to record an album, and it's certainly not one of them.

[alexclaber]

I think two key points which are true is that the probability of making big money out of being a successful band has vastly diminished and that you're unlikely to be able to make a living as a studio session bassist. Now that everyone under the age of 25 thinks all recorded music should be free the entire business model has shifted over to live music, which will gradually kill off the record companies. I guess it's like going back in time to before the advent of recording in the late 19th century.

Alex

[alexclaber]

[quote name='budget bassist' post='474858' date='Apr 29 2009, 10:31 AM']And what is he talking about? "solid state recorders" ending the dominance of hard disc recorders?? They're the same thing! Obviously a man that knows not of what he speaks. Although if he means portable recorders... i know what i'd rather use to record an album, and it's certainly not one of them.[/quote]

I think his point is that RAM or similar will replace hard disks. Like how all but the classic iPODs no longer contain moving disks.

Alex

[skankdelvar]

I don't really see why he bothers to differentiate between flash drives and hard drives. For portable music, as long as the quality is somewhere in the ballpark, who cares?

Whole thing seems like an extended "Blimey, guv, this country's going to the dogs, young people today, how am I going to put food on the table, I remember when it were all fields round here."

Future as a London cab driver?

[Beedster]

[quote name='skankdelvar' post='474875' date='Apr 29 2009, 10:50 AM']I don't really see why he bothers to differentiate between flash drives and hard drives. For portable music, as long as the quality is somewhere in the ballpark, who cares?

Whole thing seems like an extended "Blimey, guv, this country's going to the dogs, young people today, how am I going to put food on the table, I remember when it were all fields round here."

Future as a London cab driver?[/quote]

"I had that Jaco Pastorius bloke in the cab the other day"

[skankdelvar]

"We were poor but we were happy", reflects popular bass guitarist Anthony Jackson, surveying his gold records and sipping a fine Merlot. "My friends - some very well known people in the recording industry - often ask me where it's all going to end".

Jackson sighs and stares into the distance. "I don't know. I really don't know".

Edited April 29, 2009 by skankdelvar

[misrule]

I'd say two things -- the future isn't something that happens to us, we shape it. So anybody who wants a different future to his will get up and change things.

Also, history is littered with about-turns where people decide they prefer the old ways of doing things or want a radical new direction. By the time my kids have grown up, they'll be making and listening to music in ways we haven't even dreamed of yet.

Hopefully, they and others like them will be in charge -- not some cynical record company, TV show or a nasty mixture of the two.

Cheers

Mark

[lowdown]

[quote name='beardybass' post='474757' date='Apr 29 2009, 07:38 AM'][b]Anthony Jackson
[/b]:
clearly unconcerned about music, only with thrusting asses and spastic dance steps[/quote]

Ah... The female function band singer.


Garry

[51m0n]

[quote name='beardybass' post='474852' date='Apr 29 2009, 10:26 AM']Good to see everyone being so positive about this like! See that's the upside of places like this, there are people like 51mon who can say, "this guy talks cack, ignore him!"[/quote]

Yeah and there are enough people who say that about me too

There will always be a need for recording, if only as the advert to get people to come to the gig of course!

[BigRedX]

[quote name='Jean-Luc Pickguard' post='474811' date='Apr 29 2009, 09:37 AM']I'd like to predict a backlash against soulless autotuned machine music. Not sure my prediction will come true, but it'll be nice if it did.[/quote]

There doesn't need to be any more. The 'dominant' mainstream is in reality becoming just another small niche market of music that offends the least number of people so that commercial radio stations can broadcast it as BGM. There's plenty of other music out there which shuns those kinds of production techniques. Plus with decent home studios those kinds of techniques (over quantisation, autotune, over compression) which are basically time (and therefore money) savers become redundant. Can't nail the bassline? Try again tomorrow/next week/next month when you can.


[quote name='51m0n' post='474837' date='Apr 29 2009, 10:10 AM']Oooooh scare mongery, classic FUD.

There will always be people who prefer programmed/electronica. Excellent! Nothing says we cant play bass on that too (Doug Wimbish made a name for himself doing just that)

There have been 'talent' shows for as long as there has been Saturday evening TV (Opportunity Knocks anyone), it will continue to be ignored by real music lovers.[/quote]

+1 Can't fault any of that.

[quote name='51m0n' post='474837' date='Apr 29 2009, 10:10 AM']Home recording is getting cheaper and cheaper. But, and its a huuuuge but, you can not beat a great live room. Sorry thats where its at. Only a serious studio can get the sound of a fantastic live room, cos they are huge and tend to have really nice acoustic work done to them too.[/quote]

And you were doing so well...

Unfortunately that statement is up there with "you only need a Fender Bass..."

While there are still plenty of situations where your statement holds true, there are equally plenty of styles of music for which those kinds of studios are total overkill and completely inappropriate.

[bumfrog]

[quote name='misrule' post='474885' date='Apr 29 2009, 11:04 AM']Also, history is littered with about-turns where people decide they prefer the old ways of doing things or want a radical new direction. By the time my kids have grown up, they'll be making and listening to music in ways we haven't even dreamed of yet.[/quote]

Good point. Seen as though my day job is in geek land, I was amazed to see what is effectively sci fi now. It's demonstrated here.... [url="http://www.musionmedia.co.uk/cisco_day.html"]http://www.musionmedia.co.uk/cisco_day.html[/url]

Watch up to about 1 minute (beware the content is boring business blx) into it and people will get the idea I think - the possibility of virtual bands, bands playing virtually live in your living room etc...

[LukeFRC]

you know a few years ago i ended up going to a new years day ceilidh on a eriskay (small scottish island bottom of western isles) we spent the night drinking and dancing, piped in, fiddles, accordians, drums, guitar, bass maybe... and whatever else. I dont think the dance in 2007 was much different to the one in 1907 or 1807.
I'm sure they could have got a CD of the best players in the world recorded at abbey rd or wherever, but then that would have been differnent.
Music can't die, its in our souls as humans. The music industry may die, but music will be forever.
nae fear.

[RhysP]

Anthony Jackson spouts an incredible amount of horseshit.
He's right to be worried about the demise of the large recording studio as they're the only places that can comfortably accommodate his great fat arse.......

[51m0n]

[quote name='BigRedX' post='475246' date='Apr 29 2009, 04:50 PM']And you were doing so well...

Unfortunately that statement is up there with "you only need a Fender Bass..."

While there are still plenty of situations where your statement holds true, there are equally plenty of styles of music for which those kinds of studios are total overkill and completely inappropriate.[/quote]

I didn't say there weren't, and I certainly didnt mean to imply that. What I said was you cant get a great big live room in a home recording situation. So there will always be a need for those situations.

AJ is talking utter baloney here actually. Almost all serious cinema has need of orchestral recording and that requires huge live rooms. Of course it doesnt require a fat electric bassist so much, maybe thats his issue?

And I dont believe for a moment that the Nashville studio scene is about to go away either, and the studios in Nashville are some of the nicest in the world, maybe they have enough fat bassists already?

And I totally stand by the part about a pro engineer getting better results quicker than a bedroom fanatic, even one with serious cash.

[The Funk]

[quote name='Crazykiwi' post='474759' date='Apr 29 2009, 07:49 AM']He's being more than a little provocative. He's just picking up on current trends and extrapolating them to an illogical extreme. He hasn't factored in the demand for live music, for a start. He's presumed that there is no demand and the current trends will just continue to the point of collapse.[/quote]

I like it when people do that. I try to do that myself from time to time but I don't have the stature (physical or professional) of AJ. I think he's trying to spur people into doing exactly what you're saying CK - reclaiming their culture.

[The Funk]

[quote name='RhysP' post='475282' date='Apr 29 2009, 05:17 PM']He's right to be worried about the demise of the large recording studio as they're the only places that can comfortably accommodate his great fat arse.......[/quote]

Ouch!

I disagree with the first part but that was a zinger!

[XB26354]

Whoa there, say what you like about him but what has being fat got to do with it?
It did state that he was (rightly or wrongly) giving his opinion as to the future direction of music. Of course there's been talent shows as long as there's been TV to show it, but the massive proliferation of sing-a-bit, dance-a-bit, act-a-bid losers on both UK and US TV shows is unprecented (perhaps he's envious of Randy Jackson).
When I read that I thought that most of that had already come to pass anyway.