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Al Krow

Some VERY good news at last - live music back by the Spring?

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There’s an interesting article in the Guardian newspaper, pointing out that whilst the report of a potential vaccine is undoubtedly very good news, a vaccine on its own isn’t necessarily a silver bullet. Vaccination will work along with other measures, including the test and trace programme - that’s still currently not meeting it’s targets, and a requirement to maintain reduction of the spread of the virus, both in the community and across borders.

That is I guess the problem with these kind of announcements, we obviously need the positivity and morale boost, but there’s the risk - as seen over the summer with crowded beaches and pubs, that people will believe it’s all over, resulting in yet another wave before they can roll out any vaccination programme.

Edited by Basinski
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On 19/11/2020 at 14:10, Basinski said:

There’s an interesting article in the Guardian newspaper, pointing out that whilst the report of a potential vaccine is undoubtedly very good news, a vaccine on its own isn’t necessarily a silver bullet. Vaccination will work along with other measures, including the test and trace programme - that’s still currently not meeting it’s targets, and a requirement to maintain reduction of the spread of the virus, both in the community and across borders.

That is I guess the problem with these kind of announcements, we obviously need the positivity and morale boost, but there’s the risk - as seen over the summer with crowded beaches and pubs, that people will believe it’s all over, resulting in yet another wave before they can roll out any vaccination programme.

Agreed.

What we don't need is a bunch of hysterical anti-vaxxers resulting in unnecessary lost lives. Should be made a criminal offence for putting out such harmful dis-information.

On 19/11/2020 at 05:58, krispn said:

I’m sure this was said with a proud tear spilling down the cheek and the roar of Spirfire’s overhead 😀

 

Absolutely 😁

Three facts worth keeping in mind - for all the talk of avoiding analogies with war-time efforts:

1. We have suffered more civilian deaths this year from Covid than we did in any single year of two world wars;

2. Government borrowing is higher to deal with Covid economic damage than at any time since WW2;

3. The fall in economic output caused by the March lockdown was at a rate not seen in 300 years.

FWIW - totally not impressed with the cronyism in relation to PPE purchasing. Needs to be called out, found out and if there is corruption, prosecutions to follow. 

Edited by Al Krow
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2 hours ago, Al Krow said:

Agreed.

What we don't need is a bunch of hysterical anti-vaxxers resulting in unnecessary lost lives. Should be made a criminal offence for putting out such harmful dis-information.

Absolutely 😁

Three facts worth keeping in mind - for all the talk of avoiding analogies with war-time efforts:

1. We have suffered more civilian deaths this year from Covid than we did in any single year of two world wars;

2. Government borrowing is higher to deal with Covid economic damage than at any time since WW2;

3. The fall in economic output caused by the March lockdown was at a rate not seen in 300 years.

FWIW - totally not impressed with the cronyism in relation to PPE purchasing. Needs to be called out, found out and if there is corruption, prosecutions to follow. 

Agreed. I have a feeling quite a number of the public don't grasp the fact it is our money, tax revenue, and to blatantly waste it is misuse of public funds, a very serious offence. Not claiming any criminal behaviour, simply pointing our a legal point.

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3 hours ago, Al Krow said:

Agreed.

What we don't need is a bunch of hysterical anti-vaxxers resulting in unnecessary lost lives. Should be made a criminal offence for putting out such harmful dis-information.

Absolutely 😁

Three facts worth keeping in mind - for all the talk of avoiding analogies with war-time efforts:

1. We have suffered more civilian deaths this year from Covid than we did in any single year of two world wars;

2. Government borrowing is higher to deal with Covid economic damage than at any time since WW2;

3. The fall in economic output caused by the March lockdown was at a rate not seen in 300 years.

FWIW - totally not impressed with the cronyism in relation to PPE purchasing. Needs to be called out, found out and if there is corruption, prosecutions to follow. 

Agree that the anti-vaxers should not be given air time, but they should quietly object-that’s their choice.
 

I don’t understand the almost Trumpian use of stats to back up a war/Covid analogy - yes there were approx 70k civilian casualties across the whole war, but the Somme lost 58k in one day. 
Some of the ‘soldiers’ were practically civilians such was the loss of people with more training. Then there is the knock on of malnutrition, disease, famine, injuries all leading to deaths.
Also between the 2 wars tactics changed from mass shelling and bombing to more targeted warfare, so civilian casualties would be less naturally. C-19 then would not just hit civilians, it would hit everyone.

The real one to compare to is actually the Spanish Flu immediately afterwards which absolutely ripped the world apart - no doubt partly caused by the war.

It really is better to compare apples with apples

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Have just awoken to hear the news that the Oxford vaccine is reporting a 70% success rate.

Maybe its just the scepticism that lives in me, but I felt that with the rush by US businesses to bring a vaccine to market first was (in part) driven by share price and $$; just watching the CEO of Moderna on TV conjoured up images of dollar signs kerchinging in his eyes.

Moving along, trust.  We don't have a clue how these vaccines will work in the real world; what's the betting that Pfizer/Moderna will start knocking percentage points off their 90/95% claims?  This will be in little notches, so as to defer the feeling of failure.

Finally, the BBC website is writing up the Oxford vaccine as some kind of disappointment.  Let's not forget the annual flu vaccine has a sub-50% success rate (although this is subjective; I've never had a flu jab and I've never had flu).

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The news is potentially even better: 90% success rate for the Oxford vaccine where an initial half dose is followed by a second full dose. With the additional plus that if applied at this lower dosage (rather than two full doses) the 100M doses we have on order from AZ will be able to cover pretty much the entire UK population! 

Edited by Al Krow

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48 minutes ago, NancyJohnson said:

Have just awoken to hear the news that the Oxford vaccine is reporting a 70% success rate.

Maybe its just the scepticism that lives in me, but I felt that with the rush by US businesses to bring a vaccine to market first was (in part) driven by share price and $$; just watching the CEO of Moderna on TV conjoured up images of dollar signs kerchinging in his eyes.

Moving along, trust.  We don't have a clue how these vaccines will work in the real world; what's the betting that Pfizer/Moderna will start knocking percentage points off their 90/95% claims?  This will be in little notches, so as to defer the feeling of failure.

Finally, the BBC website is writing up the Oxford vaccine as some kind of disappointment.  Let's not forget the annual flu vaccine has a sub-50% success rate (although this is subjective; I've never had a flu jab and I've never had flu).

As ever the devil is in the detail - the efficacy of 70.4 percent as based on a review of results across the board - across the 20,000 participants different dosing regimes were used. One of the regime's seemed to be 90% effective, the other about 62%, but they actually had more than 2 dosing regimes across the trial with different trial groups. The dosing regimes did not all start at the same time, so later groups may take time for their results to come in. Also they did seem to report a good effect in an older population.

The next thing to report will be longevity-if the 70% (as we’ll call it for now) gives long standing immunity, but the 90% only gives a short immunity, which is the better product?

Both moderna and Pfizer had double the amount Of participants with a stable vaccination programme of 2 doses, in a novel vaccine. Oxford/Jenner/Astra Zeneca used an existing vaccine,easier to store and distribute, but were changing the vaccine schedule based on immune responses seen after doses were given.If you stuck with the 90% effective regime (if that is the correct one) then if you accrued the same number of participants as the other 2 you may well get results of a similar nature.

What i did find strange was Pfizer said 90%, moderna a few days later said 95%, all of a sudden a couple days after that Pfizer said 95%................

More testing still to be done, let’s see how it goes

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Oh and the Oxford vaccine can be stored at +2 to +8 deg C.

=> much easier to store and distribute than MINUS 80 deg C required by the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine, so another big plus.

(And unless I've missed it, the Beeb fails to mention this on their website too - unbelievable). [update - they've corrected this omission]

The other massively important point, which the Beeb does mention, is that, the Oxford vaccine, at a price of around £3, also costs far less than Pfizer's (around £15) or Moderna's (£25) vaccines. That is huge in terms of affordability, not just for us but particularly for the developing world. Would be a great use of our aid budget to sub aid recipients in getting the Oxford / AZ vaccine.

A good day all round.

Edited by Al Krow

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16 hours ago, Cuzzie said:

The real one to compare to is actually the Spanish Flu immediately afterwards which absolutely ripped the world apart - no doubt partly caused by the war.

Yes

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20 hours ago, Al Krow said:

FWIW - totally not impressed with the cronyism in relation to PPE purchasing. Needs to be called out, found out and if there is corruption, prosecutions to follow. 

Totally.

It does.

But why would backhanded deals, corruption and cronyism this year not being called out this year be different to any other year?

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I am overjoyed at the Oxford vaccine news -- I've been participating in the trial and it's brilliant to see results coming from all their hard work. The technical blurb they showed us is quite mind-boggling, I am in awe of these boffins' capabilities. I had an initial dose (couldn't tell you if it was full or half) followed by a second one later. No side effects to report yet, I still feel absoluhweojfdo fisdfnn jj*73kl;l=++k.

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5 minutes ago, EBS_freak said:

Totally.

It does.

But why would backhanded deals, corruption and cronyism this year not being called out this year be different to any other year?

I think with this lot it's the scale and the sheer brazenness of it. I cannot believe that it's not being shouted from the rooftops. Still, we'll be ok, I imagine there will be an inquiry headed by the UK's Anti-Corruption Champion, who is *checks notes* Dido Harding's husband.

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2 minutes ago, Rich said:

I am overjoyed at the Oxford vaccine news -- I've been participating in the trial and it's brilliant to see results coming from all their hard work. The technical blurb they showed us is quite mind-boggling, I am in awe of these boffins' capabilities. I had an initial dose (couldn't tell you if it was full or half) followed by a second one later. No side effects to report yet, I still feel absoluhweojfdo fisdfnn jj*73kl;l=++k.

Brilliant - thanks for sharing! 

Just also read that AZ are going sell their vaccine to developing nations at cost (i.e. forgoing all profit) in perpetuity.

BRAVO AZ! Incredibly heart warming.

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My god, there is some humanity left. That's wonderful.

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Just now, Rich said:

I think with this lot it's the scale and the sheer brazenness of it. I cannot believe that it's not being shouted from the rooftops. Still, we'll be ok, I imagine there will be an inquiry headed by the UK's Anti-Corruption Champion, who is *checks notes* Dido Harding's husband.

It's all sewn up. These people don't get into politics for the good of the people.

Lets face it, it's pretty much impossible for the average person to get into politics. Who can afford not to work the day job when they canvas? All of these MPs tend to be inherited/married into wealth or sit on boards where they turn up one day a month whilst creaming the profits.... So that they can get a position in government, not for the salary (lets face it, the MP salary is peanuts to these folk) - but for the opportunity to grease the wheels of corruption to land more cash in their coffers.

Not a lot changes...

Whatever the party, the outcome is the same. 

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2 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

Brilliant - thanks for sharing! 

Just also read that AZ are going sell their vaccine to developing nations at cost (i.e. forgoing all profit) in perpetuity.

BRAVO AZ! Incredibly heart warming.

Got to get them sterilised and micro chips implanted somehow...

(tongue firmly in cheek)

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5 minutes ago, Rich said:

I think with this lot it's the scale and the sheer brazenness of it. I cannot believe that it's not being shouted from the rooftops. Still, we'll be ok, I imagine there will be an inquiry headed by the UK's Anti-Corruption Champion, who is *checks notes* Dido Harding's husband.

As much as we slag it off for not sharing our specific views, the free press and our own intolerance of such practices is our best defence. Drop an email to your MP, whatever their flavour, and let 'em know that this is totally unacceptable.

Corruption saps the soul of any nation - if you've spent any time in any one of many developing countries you will know exactly what I mean. 

It needs stamping out and hard.

Edited by Al Krow

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Oxford/Jenner have always been a non profit organisation, obviously teamed up with Astra Zeneca for the manufacturing of the vaccine, so this  is completely within the MO of that organisation, and is of course very welcome.

Re corruption, its such a difficult topic and roots far deeper than you can imagine.Non ‘developing world’ countries are not exempt, but its unfair to tarnish developing world countries so broadly. You have to ask, how did they get to that state, how and by whom is the corruption driven?

Unfortunately ‘developed’ countries have very very dirty hands relating this, and it is often in their interest to keep it fuelled.

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27 minutes ago, EBS_freak said:

Lets face it, it's pretty much impossible for the average person to get into politics. Who can afford not to work the day job when they canvas? All of these MPs tend to be inherited/married into wealth or sit on boards where they turn up one day a month whilst creaming the profits.... So that they can get a position in government, not for the salary (lets face it, the MP salary is peanuts to these folk) - but for the opportunity to grease the wheels of corruption to land more cash in their coffers.

I think it was fairly normal for the idiot of the family to get shoe-horned into politics or the church.

😎

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7 minutes ago, taunton-hobbit said:

I think it was fairly normal for the idiot of the wealthy family to get shoe-horned into politics or the church...

Fixed. :|

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41 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

As much as we slag it off for not sharing our specific views, the free press and our own intolerance of such practices is our best defence. Drop an email to your MP, whatever their flavour, and let 'em know that this is totally unacceptable.

 

My MP makes a chocolate teapot look like a model of usefulness. If you write anything critical to him, he either throws it into the square file or just weasel-words his way round it. I had to send three (might even have been four) emails to him regarding the Cummings eye-test affair before I got any sort of response, and then it was a slightly longer variation of 'yeah, whatever' that obviously came straight from the whips' office.

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7 minutes ago, Cuzzie said:

Mine - Darren Jones on the other hand is very very good and a nice fellow to boot

Careful you’ll be getting branded an elitist 😂

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2 hours ago, NancyJohnson said:

Finally, the BBC website is writing up the Oxford vaccine as some kind of disappointment.  Let's not forget the annual flu vaccine has a sub-50% success rate (although this is subjective; I've never had a flu jab and I've never had flu).

A disappointment?

The title of the piece in the BBC is "Covid-19: Oxford University vaccine is highly effective'

doesn't sound too negative but maybe I am reading it wrong?

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