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Is the market for older instruments in decline?


karlfer
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Wow, lots of great comments guys and a lot of food for thought.
Going back 5 or 6 years, there were some real eye openers, particularly on Feebay.
An Ibanez certain copy going for just shy of £1500.
A Hondo 11 certain copy going for over £700.
Two JV Squiers (however you piggin spell it) going for over £1500.
A real Lemmy going for $11,000

They obviously are not the "bread and butter" historical vintages but even so, looking at even the top end stuff, been a couple of late 50's good nick P's that seem to have gone for a lot less than a few years ago.

Really, the question was just curiosity.
On a personal level, once I was determined to get a vintage, especially after selling my wondrous 74 Jazz to Gunsfreddy. After a while though, I came to the conclusion that was touched on earlier.
Too bloody valuable for The Bodgit and Scarper on a Saturday night.

Thanks for all the thought provoking comments folks :)

Edited by karlfer
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Fascinating discussion. I think maybe the reason for the decline in prices is because the collectors/non players, who saw vintage instruments as an investment and thus inflated the market, may be looking for other homes for their cash, leading to prices reverting to more realistic levels. May be a good thing for those of us who want to buy them to play them.

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I always thought 70's Fender prices were optimistic, bordering on outright chancer prices as I didn't think the era was that good for
Fender, generally.

So,.. I'm not surprised if prices have dropped.

Anything from that era seems silly money...and whilst some might be great basses... that isn't a given.
But as a seller, you'll be putting a '77 J with original bits up for £1500..

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[quote name='gs_triumph' timestamp='1460139451' post='3023061']
You could relate that to Classic cars. You are buying style/rarilty over function. Similar type of market.
[/quote]


Agreed. And ultimately I am not a collector, I am a user of things, so best to save the money.

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It is funny, when i started playing guitar in the late 70s / early 80s, the percieved wisdom was that you didn't buy a recent (ie, mid / late) fender as they were appalling quality. Same as early 80s gibsons.

I suppose a lot of the really bad ones have been smashed up!

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I was reading an article recently where they were saying the super hyped prices of 2008 /9 were down to two collectors battling over every proper vintage guitar that came on the market, their battle fueled price rises throughout the market, eventually one collector went bust, ended up in jail with his collection liquidated, this prompted the price crash that is still rattling on now.

Consensus seems to be that the people that got their fingers burned a few years back are now out of the market replaced by fresh new money prepared to fuel the crazy investment markets again so expect prices to rise for the real top end stuff which will have a knock on to the less desirable "vintage" instruments.

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[quote name='Woodinblack' timestamp='1460152884' post='3023226']
It is funny, when i started playing guitar in the late 70s / early 80s, the percieved wisdom was that you didn't buy a recent (ie, mid / late) fender as they were appalling quality. Same as early 80s gibsons.

I suppose a lot of the really bad ones have been smashed up!
[/quote]
Its like the current high prices being paid for crappy 80s cars like NOVAs and Escorts. No logic involved - emotive purchases perhaps.

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My belief is that the prices people were willing to pay was due to easy access to cheap credit, I doubt people really had the cash for these big items, so if everyone can get credit - everyone can bid, thus the demand increases and so does the price.

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In answer to the OP, I'd say not. Andy Baxter deals pretty much exclusively in vintage instruments and you only have to look at what has sold and the new arrivals on his website to see the market is buoyant. He's at the retail price end of things and charges top dollar.

You can see the added value from the point of view of the buyer though - there are a lot of instruments in one location, you know they are going to be original and genuine, described accurately and truthfully and will be properly set-up and ready to go. Talking of readies, if I had any I'd set up camp in his showroom and never come out...

http://andybaxterbass.com/guitars.php?pc=1&cat=1

Edited by discreet
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FWIW, I've had a '74 Jazz, extended usage of a friend's '75 jazz. I've also played a bunch of new Fenders. IMO the Levinson Blade tetra standard (their budget model) I bought recently beats them all for build quality, sound, tone, playability etc
Of the new Fenders I've played, all bar one were utter crap for something with a Fender label and price tag. Don't get me started on the "roadworn" "premium" "custom shop" nonsense: a huge price tag for an instrument of the basic quality they should be putting out anyway!

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[quote name='discreet' timestamp='1460451234' post='3025745']
In answer to the OP, I'd say not. Andy Baxter deals pretty much exclusively in vintage instruments and you only have to look at what has sold and the new arrivals on his website to see the market is buoyant. He's at the retail price end of things and charges top dollar.

You can see the added value from the point of view of the buyer though - there are a lot of instruments in one location, you know they are going to be original and genuine, described accurately and truthfully and will be properly set-up and ready to go. Talking of readies, if I had any I'd set up camp in his showroom and never come out...

[url="http://andybaxterbass.com/guitars.php?pc=1&cat=1"]http://andybaxterbas....php?pc=1&cat=1[/url]
[/quote]

Thing is discreet, London, well, there's all those famous and up and coming muso's drifting round there.
Professionals, possibly with record/production company money behind them. Plus of course Andy's global reputation. Probably his contact's in the states help as well.
So, I'm not quite convinced Andy's is the examplar that shows the whole?

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[quote name='karlfer' timestamp='1460452644' post='3025755']
Thing is discreet, London, well, there's all those famous and up and coming muso's drifting round there. Professionals, possibly with record/production company money behind them. Plus of course Andy's global reputation. Probably his contact's in the states help as well. So, I'm not quite convinced Andy's is the examplar that shows the whole?
[/quote]

I take your point. :) I know top-end cars are flying out of the showrooms and people are buying up expensive properties in big cities like there's no tomorrow (which there quite possibly isn't). But I'm guessing not many in this parish have just bought a new Roller or a Ferrari and thus would imagine the market for those cars is slow... so I'd say globally the market for vintage instruments is buoyant and the Basschat (or UK) market for vintage instruments, less so. And a NOS 1954 P Bass is a bargain compared with even a mediocre orchestral instrument, so it's all relative I suppose... :)

Edited by discreet
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[quote name='chris_b' timestamp='1460116359' post='3022716']
Also sellers don't do themselves or others any favours. If gear doesn't sell in the first week there is an instant price drop. I wouldn't buy anything for the first few months because the price is going to keep gliding down.
[/quote]

Some time ago, I suggested that the best policy was to start increasing the price.

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