The Future of the Music Industry

[Terra]

Hello

I'm doing a piece of coursework on the music industry, and for some research I thought I'd see what you guys thought. A good mix of pro and amatur musicians, all with some knowledge of the music world.

So, what do you think is in the future for the music industry? What will happen to record companies with falling slaes thanks to illegal download? What will happen to live music with so many bands around? Will we all go underground, DIY, or sell our souls for fame?

Please write as much or as little as you want/can be assed, every opinion helps! Thanks!

[The Funk]

[quote name='Terra' post='176369' date='Apr 14 2008, 04:07 PM']What will happen to record companies with falling slaes thanks to illegal download?[/quote]

So long as record companies keep blaming and cheating the consumer and not their own failing, exploitative and unsustainable business model, more of them are going to go out of business.

We live in an era where you have samples of samples of covers. A couple of summers ago we had three competing singles, all of which sampled the same awful 80s' pop song. Who's going to pay for that?

[Cantdosleepy]

Off the top of my head-

Some points that I think are very important to this discussion:
1) It is now essentially possible to make professional-sounding records in your own home with only a powerful computer and $1000 of equipment. Even if you dispute this, considering the phenomenal leap forward that home recording has taken even in the last five years, in the next decade this will certainly be the case.
2) It is as easy to acquire intellectual property for free as it is to get it through legal means. The technology to distribute IP (illegally) will progress at a similar rate to the technology that tries to stop it.

Given these two points, I can't see any value in the music industry whatsoever. In my (fairly radical) dreams, there will be no recogisable Recorded Music Industry in fifteen years, or if one does exist it will exist purely as a hype engine in cahoots with music magazines (which will also die) that tries to convince you to buy their music over an increasing pool of homemade talent.

In fifteen years time people simply can't expect to make money from IP like music or books. It will just be too easy to get everything for free. We grew up in an age of the super-seller in everything from CDs to books to DVDs. In the future that simply will not be the case.

Musicians will make music in their houses however they choose, some taking months over things, some bashing things out in days. They will make the songs available to the world. If the song is good, people will hear it, will recommend it, it'll appear on blogs and aggregators and the musician might become known.

The live scene will be similar to today (since you can't sell 'product' like CD or MP3, but you can still sell 'performance') except that there won't be the current scrabbling-for-the-big-time A&R men nonsense. A crowd will see you support the band they went to see. If they like you they'll grab your music off the web on their wifi mobile phone. They'll maybe listen to it once or twice. If a track grabs them they'll add it to some future version of Twitter or whathaveyou where their mates might hear it.

We'll see more 'singles' bands than 'albums' bands.

Tastes will become more diverse. Whereas twenty years ago, you and your mates liked and knew almost exactly the same bands, today my friends know hundreds of bands I've never heard and vice versa. In the future you'll share three or four hundred bands with mates and like ten times that that you haven't got around to sharing.

Covers bands will play an increasingly old selection of stuff (as in, not much more will be added to the pantheon of 'wedding songs' because people won't share a song on that scale. There might be global hits for a week or two, but the old radio-enforced days of having a song drilled into you 60 times will be over.

For myself, I don't plan on making any money on the music I make. The music I make will be put up on the internet free to download. Same with the novels I will eventually write. I will always have to have a full-time job outside these pursuits because the next episteme is going to be that of the Amateur.* I can't wait.




*A person who engages in a study, sport, or other activity for pleasure rather than for financial benefit or professional reasons. Not in the pejorative sense or beginner, but in the latinate 'Amo' sense - to be a lover of.

[stingrayfan]

This might be a useful read: [url="http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91248-1310808,00.html"]http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91248-1310808,00.html[/url]

[Bilbo]

Its not hard to see what will hapeen - just look at history.

Take jazz (I had to get it in there, didn't I?)

In the early days in the US, jazz was a no-profit, out of hours nonsense activity for a few musicians in a few obscure backwaters. Gradually, it caught on and got marketed. It grew and grew and hundreds of bands existed in territories across America. People were hearing it nightly on the radio and the bands they were listening were ALL playing live to the nations. The introduction of the phonograph record preceded and downturn in the numbers of bands that the industry could sustain and then external factors kicked in (loss of shellac due to WWII). The bands tailed off and small groups became the flavour of the day. Then rock and roll came along and, ZAP, even the previously succesful jazz acts were counting the days.

Jazz is now a cottage industry, full of people who make a bit of money but many of whom live hand to mouth. Most people in the field do other things to make ends meet; teaching, commercial gigs, sessions (fewer and fewer), tv catalogue work, pit orchestras etc.

My guess is that the bubble is set to burst as music ceases to be as important to future generations as it was to previous ones. There is as much money in music for XBox games these days as there is in many sub-genres. More people involved but earning less.

I did a session for the BBC in 1982 on a state of the art studio and it still sounds great. My home PC is now more powerful. The secret is in the skills of the engineer/producer and not just in the gear. As we all get more expert, our home recordings will become more sophisticated and more competitive. For people interested in minority musics, this is probably a good thing. I also think that professionalism is more necessary now than previously. Getting hammered all teh time was romantic for the Stones et al. Now it will get you fired.

I think the music industry in the future will be different; not better or worse, just different!

[Rich]

This isn't much of a contribution, but it makes a handy soundbite... I just thought I'd share a gem of a quote I read once, from The Hamsters' frontman:
[i]"The trouble with the music industry these days is that it's become the music INDUSTRY and not the MUSIC industry."[/i]

[Happy Jack]

Some very sensible comments already posted here.

My own take is that we're looking at increasing fragmentation throughout all aspects of the music scene (not just the industry), and the people who'll suffer most are the big players ... the big labels and the big chain stores. Expect more big names to disappear over the next few years.

If anything, there'll be way more music about, but it'll be of a much more variable quality. The winners will be the media. TV, radio and the papers are all desperate for "content". Music can fill the airtime better (and cheaper) than most things, while celebrity drug binge stories sell tabloids like nothing else.

Musicians? There has always been a tiny minority of millionaires and a vast queue of wannabees. That won't change. All that's new is that the internet provides a new way of moaning about the situation.

[SJA]

"The Futureheads admit they were in a lucky position. Their old record label 679 (who are part of Warner Music) had spent thousands on promotion and building a fanbase for them, making going independent easier."

so they can only do this now because they were signed to a label that paid for all the promotion to make them a known name.
but will labels keep signing bands with ever-decreasing odds of breaking even, and ever-increasing odds of dropping the band after 1 album and writing off a £1million loss (ouch)?

"Gone is the almost busker-like salary they used to earn. Now the figures look a lot better."

um, gone also is the upfront advance per album. still, look on the bright side an' all.

[SJA]

re. the music industry, it really does seem to be dying out-

take discussions on the Recordoftheday board-
[url="http://www.recordoftheday.com/cgi-bin/rotd-mb/rotd_config.pl?read=142293&expand=1"]http://www.recordoftheday.com/cgi-bin/rotd...93&expand=1[/url]

if dedicated musicians become adept at the production, promotion and business side, and running everything for themselves on a small scale, there'll be less and less need for industry people (many of whom are clueless chancers anyway).

[Muppet]

Check out Radiohead's and The Charlatans' approach. Radiohead are getting fans to remix their latest single by making the constituent parts available on the web. Now you don't even have to buy whole songs anymore.....

[SJA]

[quote name='Muppet' post='176435' date='Apr 14 2008, 05:07 PM']Check out Radiohead's and The Charlatans' approach.[/quote]

dunno about the Charlatans. they seem to be a spent force, and the free giveaway of their album more a desperate PR exercise to keep flagging interest in them alive.
they're planning a conventional CD release of that album- seeing as their previous one shifted only 20,000 in the UK, I don't hold high hopes for that.

[silverfoxnik]

[quote name='Terra' post='176369' date='Apr 14 2008, 04:07 PM']Hello

I'm doing a piece of coursework on the music industry, and for some research I thought I'd see what you guys thought. A good mix of pro and amatur musicians, all with some knowledge of the music world.

So, what do you think is in the future for the music industry? What will happen to record companies with falling slaes thanks to illegal download? What will happen to live music with so many bands around? Will we all go underground, DIY, or sell our souls for fame?

Please write as much or as little as you want/can be assed, every opinion helps! Thanks![/quote]
Being flippant, I'd say 'what future?', as I don't think there is a future for the music INDUSTRY (to quote Rich)..

In my view, the entertainment media/industry (including portals like BBC, AOL, Yahoo, myspace, youtube etc, etc) will be the channels through which consumers access music and most probably, it will be available free.

The already established name acts and some of the other as yet to be discovered creators of original MUSIC who somehow capture an audience's attention, will earn income from their creativity through gigs, touring, sponsorship and merchandise.. I think all the other creators of original work will be the 'amateurs' doing it for love with little or no financial gain..

Cantdosleepy made the point that "It is now essentially possible to make professional-sounding records in your own home with only a powerful computer and $1000 of equipment" which is true enough. But the last thing I care about as a music fan is 'professional-sounding records'.. What I've always been interested in is artists that have something unique about them and their music.. And that has got very little to do with professionalism and more to do with talent!

But as life gets ever faster, it will be impossible to check out the huge numbers of artists making their music available to us for free,. So, as before, it will still fall to a select few 'opinion-formers' in the media or underground media to help us filter out all the dross.. It'll basically empower the old Payola system and the [i]'it's not what you know but WHO you know'[/i] systems even further.

For example, if the Futureheads had never been signed to 679 and hadn't had zillions of record company dollars spent on marketing them, how would anyone know now to check out their new self-released material? As Bilbo said, [i]"I think the music industry in the future will be different; not better or worse, just different!"[/i]

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if things got worse..

[Musky]

I'm sure you've already come across [url="http://www.wired.com/entertainment/music/magazine/16-01/ff_byrne"]David Byrne's piece in Wired,[/url] but if you haven't it's well worth the read.

I think we'll see far more deals being struck which gives the industry (not necessarily the recording industry) a far bigger slice of artists' other income. And I'm equally sure that we'll see ticket prices for live music rise across the board, as the artists and industry alike seek to maximise their income from a source that can't be so easily stolen. The secondary ticket market already proves that punters will pay far more for gigs.

The upside of the internet is that it doesn't just allow so many more artists to get their music out there, but also allows them to connect to fans in ways that were never possible before. For a lot of bands that's going to mean [url="http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/03/1000_true_fans.php"]making a living on the long tail[/url] by maintaining closer relationships with fewer fans.

Edited April 15, 2008 by Musky

[JakeBrownBass]

[url="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Kill-Your-Friends-John-Niven/dp/043401799X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1208247878&sr=8-1"]http://www.amazon.co.uk/Kill-Your-Friends-...7878&sr=8-1[/url]

That'll have everything from the inside, and on the plus side, its a really really good read.

[Kiwi]

I think the current trends of increasing fragmentation in the industry are likely to continue. I expect to see that the market will becoming increasingly divided as record companies become increasingly risk-shy and look for safer bets (usually established stars). This means they will support new music acts less.

New music acts are increasingly having to do their own promotion and generate a fan base to the point where record companies can't afford not to sign them up. In some ways this is because technology like the internet has improved access to markets, but this is a double edged sword as well.

Where direct access to markets has improved for new bands, the support of record companies has reduced.

Hopefully it means that music will get cheaper to buy in the long run but what isn't clear to me is how easily new acts are going to establish themselves. Where before it happened on the say so of a single A&R person, now its depending more or less peer approval of thousands.

On reflection its probably more difficult for new acts to establish themselves than ever because they can't rely on record companies to get them noticed any more. They now have to do it in competition with every other band out there with a myspace page and access to home recording software. The other thing is that this is already having an impact on the demand for session musicians. Because record companies are no longer interested in chucking money at acts to get them established, there is generally less cash being circulated within the industry. Technology has replaced the demand for session musicians.

There may come a point where a new technology only available to the record companies becomes in great demand by the public, that would probably stop the current trend. Thats how the industry got started in the first place (recording technology and radio).

But so long as the record companies are no longer gate keepers to the market, I think they'll be more likely to stick with the tried and tested acts.

[queenofthedepths]

I don't have an opinion of my own - only [url="http://blog.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=blog.view&friendID=28699228&blogID=377219088"]that of Steve Lawson[/url]

[SJA]

an amusing comment here-
[url="http://www.recordoftheday.com/cgi-bin/rotd-mb/rotd_config.pl?read=142907&expand=1"]http://www.recordoftheday.com/cgi-bin/rotd...07&expand=1[/url]

"Its a condition known as Lefsetzism"

ie. Bob Lefsetz, the guy who talks a lot, comments on facts and figures, goes on about the "new music business model" and the Eagles, but hasn't actually got any answers- easy to talk hot air about it, a bit trickier to actually go out and do it.

[Mr. Foxen]

I like the way that the majority of what cantdosleepy said was applicable before recording was invented. It did occur that people should be less scared to cover songs that other local bands have written but haven't recorded, sort of like folk music without beards and knitted jumpers.

[bear-foot-bass]

If you haven't been directed there already read this from Seth Godin - internet marketing guru - it seems spot on to me

[url="http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2008/01/music-lessons.html"]http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/20...ic-lessons.html[/url]

[ahpook]

as a librarian i can only add this...

remember to use correct citation when referencing online discussions

:brow:

Edited April 15, 2008 by ahpook

[Kiwi]

[quote name='ahpook' post='177207' date='Apr 15 2008, 05:58 PM']as a librarian i can only add this...

remember to use correct citation when referencing online discussions[/quote]
Please don't forget your punctuation, Mr Librarian.
:brow: :brow:

[ahpook]

[quote name='Crazykiwi' post='177213' date='Apr 15 2008, 06:02 PM']Please don't forget your punctuation, Mr Librarian.
:brow: :brow:

[/quote]

dammit jim, i'm a librarian, not an english teacher !!

[Paul Cooke]

[quote name='ahpook' post='177207' date='Apr 15 2008, 05:58 PM']as a librarian i can only add this...

remember to use correct citation when referencing online discussions

:brow:[/quote]

That's why I hate websites that live inside flash boxes... they're impossible to link into and they can change content on you and you have to go to the trouble of taking screenshots for archival purposes and proving they'd actually stated something...

[silverfoxnik]

[quote name='Mr. Foxen' post='177024' date='Apr 15 2008, 01:37 PM']sort of like folk music without beards and knitted jumpers.[/quote]


Makes me think of that Vic & Bob sketch...

[FJ1200]

Remember how in the 80's cassettes were the new evil? People recorded albums to play in their cars or on the new Sony Walkman and the record industry cried out that it would die. But it didn't. Fat cats got fatter, made more money than ever. Then they tried putting a signal on the album that would render copying impossible but it didn't work.

I don't know what the future is or - as has been said - if there is one. The internet has not so much moved the goalposts as changed the game beyond all recognition. I think they need a new business model as some bands are starting to realise and are starting to pioneer. Watching with interest.

Edited April 16, 2008 by FJ1200