tegs07

Total energies have cut investment in UK North Sea oil by 25% and Harbour Energy pulled out of a tender to drill I believe. You can google for full details. I think it’s because it’s not an exact science and no guarantee of money on investment. If when they get lucky they are penalised they get cross and flounce off taking their ball elsewhere. Temperamental divas the lot of them.

When supply is constrained prices go up. I know two of the companies that have paid more in windfall taxes (Harbour Energy & Total Energy) have responded by cutting back on their R&D development in the UK so it’s not as straightforward as you would like. This will reduce energy security in the medium to long term. If worrying about whether people lose their homes or pensions is defending the establishment then sure you have got me.

I think Putin’s war and Xi’s zero covid policy may have something to do with things alongside the billions created via QE during Covid (much of which flowed into assets and equities). A strong labour market and the actions of central banks are not governed by political parties and neither are yield spikes or sovereign debt crises. There are a host of issues that fall way outside of party politics that will threaten the livelihoods of your average worker during the next few years. It’s a time to be debt free, not beholden to rising debt repayment and with a positive balance of payments and sadly the UK is not in great shape. I’m not convinced that in the short to medium term any government can avoid a similar course of action. Longer term there is much that can and should be done. I think people will rightly fight for better wages but I am cautious looking at interest rates rising and bond yields increasing as mortgages and pensions are also massive factors here.

I concur re wages not being a primary causal factor around inflation. I do urge caution in regards to debt levels and interest rates. Bizarrely the labour market in the USA will have as much sway as the labour market in the UK as the FED are playing the fiddle we are all dancing to. In terms of public debt this is something of concern. Borrowing costs are rising exponentially and as seen recently if the markets get spooked bond yields can spike dramatically causing mayhem in pensions, mortgages etc. I bang on about this a bit so excuse repetition but it’s something I have a real interest/concern about.

Did the global corporations wait until 2022 to decide to be greedy? Wage price spiral is potentially inflationary but it’s not a major causal factor. The restriction of cheap credit*, geopolitical factors (war and sanctions) and supply constraints are far more important. In terms of the workforce a strong labour market is a major factor in central bank’s decisions around interest rate rises. It is something a heavily indebted population needs to consider. I don’t think the average person could take interest rates at 5% in the current economic climate. * The unwinding of Quantitative Easing, The start of Quantitative Tightening, the unwinding of the carry trade, increased yields on bonds, currency weakening etc etc

The problem though is that Amazon are a ruthless but unbelievably efficient company. Their investment and innovation in technology, logistics and workflows have allowed them to totally dominate internet shopping. By contrast Royal Mail put bits of cardboard through your letterbox and you need to try and find time to go and collect it. Are Amazon nice people. Probably not. Are they efficient and bang up to date with the needs of modern consumers? I would say they dominate the market for a reason. This technological innovation and investment has not been matched by Royal Mail and one of the greatest companies in British history are losing ground. I support the right of the postal workers to strike but fear it will be another chapter in an ongoing decline.

I guess we really choose a side when we go for the cheapest option when sending a parcel!

I’m not sure there has ever been a period of complete apathy. If there has I have been fortunate to live through it. Despite the odd whinge it has been a golden age historically speaking of relative wealth and global harmony. The economic and geopolitical landscape certainly looks far more rocky and the current industrial unrest is a symptom of the underlying issues that are slowly emerging. For me there have been 3 major chances to pivot away from the current trajectory of rampant debt and economic malaise in the last decade and a half: 1. 2007/2008 banking crisis 2. 2014 invasion of Crimea 3. 2019 Covid pandemic Each was a massive warning shot to change direction economically, politically and socially. Each one was a failed opportunity. The 2022/2023 stagflationary debt crisis is yet another warning. If we don’t invest in our social institutions, our infrastructure, our education and health and redefine what wealth, economic growth and national security really means then I can’t see any outcome other than social and economic decline.

Sort of fixed the alternative is to continue to kick the can down the road with the current system. If chosen I suggest that the end result will either be far left or far right. I don’t see much road left with the current global headwinds. The era of cheap debt and benign global trade and cooperation is nearly over.

I believe India has taken the 5th largest economy spot. The western economies in general are in decline. They are mired in debt and declining confidence in their currencies. It’s now down to the electorate to vote in a high tax and spend government and decide what kind of growth and lifestyle changes are required for sustainable development. The alternative is a blame culture and the rise of far right politics.

10.15 saturday night - the cure

Welcome to the UK 2022. Loads of 50 somethings sitting in their homes worth nearly a million quid awaiting a retirement where they don’t have enough pension to cover surging prices of food and fuel and are scared of losing their mobility because there are precious few local facilities such as libraries, public toilets, post offices. The bus services are woeful and many things have moved online and require decent eyesight, coordination and technical knowledge. Getting sick is even more frightening. Much of the working population look with envy at their circumstances because they can’t even afford the overpriced home to be isolated in. This has been decades in the making. It doesn’t need to be this way.

vagabonds - new model army

Could you do a dance off instead? Possibly to Billy Jean? A couple of middle aged blokes attempting the moon walk would far more entertaining.

do nothing - specials (R.I.P)

repeal of the licensing laws - the pogues

Ask - The Smiths

into the valley - skids

Some things don’t need to be overly complicated or intellectualised. If muting with your thumb works for you then do it. If growing up on a working class council estate where there is no work and lots of bored angry youths about is reflected in the music of the time then no middle class intellectual needs to write a thesis on the subject to make sense of it. Chomsky didn’t need to publish a paper on The Specials Ghost Town. I just had to walk into the town centre to understand it.

I know you love a quote! I’m no expert on the history of Punk but I doubt that many of the original punk’s thought too deeply about the subject. They were largely bored, broke and a bit angry about the state of their lives. It hadn’t changed all that much by my early teens.

I was a bit too young to be a Punk but old enough to have been impacted by the social and economic conditions of the 1970s. I doubt if it was just a fashion statement for most. They were tough and bleak times.

idiot wind - dylan

some girls are bigger than others - the smiths

first and last and always - sisters of mercy

house of fun - madness