tegs07

heavy soul - paul weller

demolition man - the old bill 

10 minutes ago, Fishfacefour said:

I can't remember - alice in chains 

They were a band in the 90’s. A damn fine one.

Amnesia - Chumbawumba

If the powers that be have a trump card now is the time to play it. 

Things are Truss bad with gilts yields. Maybe hold off the GAS for a while. Something is brewing and it doesn’t smell good.

I tend to talk into a bit of a void as folks find this stuff boring. I guess it is, if it wasn’t so fundamentally important in determining one of the biggest costs of our adult lives. Anyhow for anyone who may be interested, debt swaps are struggling to be filled even at a couple of % above the current bank rate. In plain english this translates as mortgage products are likely to be pulled and repriced at a higher rate over the coming days. 2 year fixed could easily hit 7% if this continues.

Had both, kept the East. Just more refined.

Nothing wrong with the quality of the stinger. It gives a decent approximation of the original 2 band Stingray IMO, but if you can afford to then buy the East.

I doubt if you will regret the decision.

2 minutes ago, asingardenof said:

Dear reader,

 

Our response is that similar to that given in Arkell v Pressdram.

 

Yours, &c.

Haha yes I remember that.

2 hours ago, snorkie635 said:

Dear Sir, I write this to you from hospital, having been removed from a tree by a passing fire-engine ... ... 🤯

Dear reader

Our lawyers refer you to page 43, section 5, paragraph 4 of our T&Cs entitled “Our advice and your responsibility” in which we clearly state, in latin, that we can say whatever we want and you are responsible for your own actions.

We wish you a good day and as a gesture of goodwill will halve the usual legal fee to a mere £200 for this clarification.

Linger(ie) - the cranberries 

3 hours ago, Pseudonym said:

But GAS and inflation are closely correlated, or at least they are in my abdomen.

I think that may be constipation. Maybe try some prune juice, followed up with four pints of stout and a vindaloo 👍

river man - nick drake

24 minutes ago, Steve Browning said:

You'd think the Ukrainians could have picked off the board of the BoE easily enough, when they invaded.

The war hasn’t helped but UK inflation had overshot its target by a staggering 250% before the Russian invasion. If you measured RPI (which includes housing costs ) it went parabolic after Covid. And still they sat in their hands and did nothing.

Source ONS. Seriously! Brown trousers time.

I have covered most of this stuff before. Let’s let the guys talk about GAS and stuff not selling. Happy to take discussion to another thread.

1 minute ago, StingRayBoy42 said:

Understand how disheartening it is to see someone in the front row looking bored, but posting their face on Twitter is well out of order.
He's deleted it and (sort of) apologised, so that's to his credit.

I'm a big Royal Blood fan, but berating the audience at a Radio 1 roadshow for not knowing who they are makes him look like a right male appendage.
 

Royal Blood would have been better venting their frustration at their manager/booking agent. 

There does seem to be a growing number of really nice instruments for sale at some very reasonable prices that get little interest. Sign of the times.

2 hours ago, Dan Dare said:

 Of course not. We're all stupid, apart from you. As for your being "being uncaring and being some kind of tool that wants to put people in their place", you said it. 

Well I’ve learned a lot from various people on BC, particularly on topics I know little about such as technical build and music theory. I guess the key is knowing my limitations and having a willingness to learn rather than get defensive and insult people.

Plenty of people post about prices going up sharply, the cost of living, about mortgage rates increasing etc.

I have some knowledge around these issues and try to explain the economic factors that drive them. Most people are politely bored, some interested, some just plain rude. If you want to vent some spleen do it at Andrew Bailey and the BOE. They are the ones that let inflation get out of control and they are the ones raising interest rates and defining the factors that influence each decision. Their decisions have directly impacted the level of mortgage debt people have taken on and the increase in costs of repaying that debt.

18 minutes ago, Rayman said:

I’ve always found having a ‘selection’ of instruments on stands and clearly on show really irritating and unnecessary. A bit like displaying trophies….. “look what I’ve got” type of thing, especially as literally nobody cares.

 

Our guitarist has this kind of multi guitar carousel kind of thing? Clearly displaying all his lovely guitars, much to our amusement, especially as it’s nearly fallen over a couple of times.

Depends if you have songs that require different tuning etc 

personal jesus - going to go for the cash version 

31 minutes ago, neepheid said:

FFS can we please just get back to generic moaning about not being able to afford shiny things whenever we want?

Absolutely. Even I’m bored with myself.

Edit: The reason I am so preoccupied with this matter though is even if by some miracle the powers that be manage to halve the current rate of inflation it doesn’t mean prices will go down, just that they will RISE at twice the rate they did two years ago. It’s fairly shocking.

17 hours ago, Dan Dare said:

 

Do you not see the inconsistencies in your position? You express sympathy for "those poor sods re-mortgaging from 2% to around 6% over the coming months", yet argue against pay rises for them. I am quite happy with my income. I have the good fortune to own my home outright, have a couple of pensions and a decent amount in savings and investments. I am able to survive comfortably. I am not certainly calling for increases for "middle managers,  senior IT staff and the like" and never did.

 

You state you "fully support pay rises for those on lower tier paybands" and then say that "a few % payrise is not going to touch the sides on a tripling of mortgage debt". The logical conclusion to that is that those low-paid public service workers need substantial increases.  And yet you oppose that, from memory of the previous exchange on here. I too would rather we had a system that is closer to that in France (although they are not without their problems). The consequences of Brexit make that highly unlikely, sadly.

 

So where do we go? People who are lower paid have to survive and they need substantially more income in order to do so. How do you suggest we square that circle?

 

"Insults"? Care to elaborate? Either I'm unaware when I'm insulting people or you are extraordinarily sensitive.

I think I will conclude this bun fight as you don’t really grasp the economic factors behind the debate. 

I would try googling monetarism, Friedrick Hayek , Milton Friedman, Inflation and what causes it.

(Quantative Easing, decades of interest rates kept too low, supply shock due to pandemic and war as source of inflation).

Then try Wage price Spiral (symptoms of inflation) and find out what the MPC is, what their remit is and what factors they are targeting. (attempts to ‘cure’ inflation). Wage price spiral is a contentious topic but nevertheless it’s something the BOE have said they are targeting on several occasions. The comparison with German wage constraints and one off payments to tackle inflation and the cost of living crisis are stark. This can be handled with sensitivity.

At this point you might see there is no inconsistency in my position and you then can dismiss my arguments or suggest how I could look at situation from a different angle.

There are other perspectives. My position is fairly old fashioned and doesn’t chime with much of modern economic theory. I have a feeling it may make a popular resurgence though. The world is changing.

I never claimed the poor don’t deserve more money, just that if wages jump 7% across the board (this is the figure currently and believe it or not UK pay is rising faster than the EU at the moment) and the MPC is looking to stop inflation getting entrenched by raising rates to curtail it we will end up a circle that can never be squared.

More money will be needed to ease the effects of inflation, which fuels inflation, which causes the MPC to tighten which means more money is needed, and so on until we have hyper inflation or a savage recession.

It’s too late now anyway. Any chance to have contained inflation has been missed.

At this stage inflation is entrenched and policy is already tightened. Naturally people will fight for pay increases. The spiral has started in earnest. How or when it will stop is anyone’s guess. I suspect rates will hit at least 5% by winter. The cost of servicing debt will be horrendous. Some councils will go bankrupt, some commercial real estate projects will most likely fail and there may be a crash in the housing market. The UK is really exposed to property slumps due to the prevalent short term fixed rates.

There will be periods of optimism that the hikes are working and inflation is easing, whether this reverses as winter fuel bills kick in though is not known.

As for extraordinary sensitive, you keep accusing me of being uncaring and being some kind of tool that wants to put people in their place “you wish to preserve the distance between you and those at the bottom of the heap. Fine, but just be frank about it..”

is both rude and presumptuous.

I work in the public sector so have some concept about lack of pay over the last few years. I also have (a limited) understanding of economics so could see the storm brewing and the damage it was likely to bring so tried to warn people to watch out. The time for pay restraint from middle income earners has passed, the opportunity missed and the consequences are being felt. The most pressing for most people is the price and availability of mortgages.

I got a lot of rudeness for pointing out some very basic economic principles. Usually the rudeness comes from people who appear to be economically illiterate.

1 hour ago, Dan Dare said:

 

My word. Have you been seething about that for all this time? Where your argument falls down, of course, is that those we were discussing - rail, public service workers and similar - have not had a pay rise for at least 4 years. So it can't be pay rises (theirs, at any rate) that have caused the present spike in inflation, can it?

 

I get it. You, like me, are a middle income earner. You wish to preserve the distance between you and those at the bottom of the heap. Fine, but just be frank about it.

Absolutely. Haven’t slept a wink since.

I see that despite all that is happening and how utterly crushing it is going to be for those poor sods re-mortgaging from 2% to around 6% over the coming months you still can’t understand my concerns. No I don’t wish to preserve a distance. It’s simply that there are a whole load of factors that are all colliding simultaneously that are driving up prices and some poor sods are likely to be repossessed as a result of the policy response to those factors. Four years ago the world was a different place.  A lot has happened over those four years that has made any increase in the money supply a pretty scary issue for an old fashioned monetarist like myself.

And still there is the inability to understand alongside the insults. For what it is worth I am deeply regretting a decision not to move to France a decade ago when I had the chance. A high tax socialist economy I personally identify with. What is happening in the UK is a right mess and will take years and a fair bit of hardship to sort out. A few % payrise is not going to touch the sides on a tripling of mortgage debt. And so the merry go round, goes round as the snake eats its tail.

Edit: To clarify yet again I fully support pay rises for those on lower tier paybands. Nurses and ticket inspectors need the money. Im not sure that middle managers,  senior IT staff and the like are in the same category of need. Us guys can take the hit. Or at least we could have 12 months ago before rates were hiked again and again to try and put a lid on things. It’s too late now.

22 minutes ago, TimR said:

 

I don't get this.

 

I don't take my wife to gigs and she doesn't take me.

 

She doesn't even come to see me play. It's healthy to have different interests. 

I had a right laugh going to gigs with a mate that had different taste in music back at school/uni days. Highlights were The Proclaimers (his choice) U2 (his choice) The Pogues and The Wonderstuff (my choice).

Low lights were Transvision Vamp (his choice) and Fields of the Nephilim (my choice) we both suffered through our obligations with them.

Eggs and Sausage (In a Cadillac with Susan Michelson) - Waits

I would add you may be the best band in the world, consummate performers and giving it your all. However not everyone is going to dig your music. Lady in bobble hat may have been dragged there by her partner. Next week he/she will be suffering through Lana Del Rey or Gojira or whatever.

44 minutes ago, Dad3353 said:

You are Cassandra and I claim my £5..! 

Indeed. I was called that in 2007 as well. To be fair I follow an economist nicknamed Dr.Doom so it’s not my doing.

Edit: Glad to see you back fighting fit.

1 hour ago, Dan Dare said:

 

Really? Can't say I remember. How is what I say above (that we have to recognise that money is tight for many and accept that we are likely to get less for what we wish to sell) relevant to that? If anything, I am agreeing that inflation/the reduction in the purchasing power of money is forcing many - whether buyers or sellers - to cut their coat according to their cloth.

Go back and read my comments and your replies in the strikes thread, where I was warning that inflation busting pay rises would potentially fuel inflation and were a major factor that the bank of england were monitoring in their rate hike decisions. They clearly warned that any whiff of a wage price spiral would lead to rates ratcheting faster and harder.

I was trying hard to say that inflation is really hard on the lowest earners and middle income earners like myself would need to take on some pain and not push for inflation busting pay increases, as it would directly impact on driving interest rates higher.

When public and private debts are so high raising rates are really punitive. I warned on the impact that would be felt on mortgages, rents and pensions if rates rose. I also warned on what happens when yields increase, particularly with short term gilts.

Borrowing costs increase and volatility kicks in making a recession far more likely. After taking a kicking I warned you would understand in around 18 months. Its now nearly 12 months in and I’m afraid it’s looking ugly.

heaven knows i’m miserable now - les schmucks