bigjohn

4 minutes ago, Maude said:

If there will be a flood of UK folks travelling to the EU to see bands now then surely the other side of that will be all the EU folks coming to the UK to see UK bands if we're not over there, bad for the environment but great for our tourism industry, so other sectors will benefit from this. 

 

Maybe. I think the problem with trying to positives though is that it allows people to gloss over the real problems that this amongst other aspects of Brexit will cause. Solutions and mitigation of those problems are what we need to find and the first step with solving any problem is admitting that they do exist. 

11 minutes ago, Maude said:

So EU bands won't come to the UK to play and UK bands won't go to the EU to play, so the UK bands can take the EU bands gigs in the UK, and EU bands can take the UK bands gigs in the EU, everyone keeps gigging and there's a lot less travel involved which is great for the environment.

Except for all of the people from the UK travelling to the EU to see non UK bands...

I already have done far too much of that due to sell outs and thanks to the stupidly expensive rail system we have the UK. Sometimes it's barely any more expensive to go see a band in Amsterdam or Milan than it is to see them in London. That's before the likely price hike we'll see when this comes into view. 

Oh Great. So people are now giving advice to others which includes breaking the laws of our own country and others whilst they're at it. 

Taking back control... 

Pretty sure a musician here, working with no work visa would, if discovered, be arrested, detained uncomfortably and for an unspecified time before being blacklisted and deported. Never mind the trouble that the promoter and the venue would incur for employing an illegal immigrant.

What makes anyone think the same wouldn't happen abroad to a UK citizen doing the same?

Yep. All well and get crying "It's democracy" when something happens that you wanted. It's very difficult to get things done when politicians don't value what you want as a vote winner. 

People would do well to remember that over 48% of the vote wasn't for Brexit and the turnout, although high means that only 37.4 of the electorate voted in favour. It's a minority cause and always has been, which has been blown out of all proportion by electioneering. 

When the problems it is causing are brought to people's attention, then people who voted for Brexit should really know better than essentially saying "deal with it". And "write to your MP" isn't much better. 

"Sorry for ****ing your life up" would be a start. 

3 minutes ago, DoubleOhStephan said:

Yes, and as I've said, this appears to me to be a short term problem. 

It's not a removal, you're free to go wherever you like. If people in the EU would like to work in the UK, they can, that's absolutely fine, they'll just need to get a visa first. 

If you don’t mind... what about the rest of that don’t live in your fantasy world and have to deal with reality rather than what you think will happen? 
 

and yes, it’s quite clearly a removal. It’s the removal of the right to live and work in the EU. From now on, we won’t have the right, we will have to ask permission. 
 

1 hour ago, DoubleOhStephan said:

As I said, this isn't removing or reducing standards. The efficiency is made by reducing bureaucracy and all costs associated with that. 

You do realise that this thread is about Brexit causing a specific increase in bureaucracy and costs for performance artists?

You are aware, this is directly caused by the removal of the standard that we know as Freedom of Movement?

1 hour ago, DoubleOhStephan said:

Less red tape means increased efficiency, not lower standards. 

Its another excellent reason why the EU will be too expensive and ultimately collapse, they're too inefficient, so too slow and too expensive. 

No, standards are standards. You don't increase efficiency by removing standards, in fact, in a globalised economy, the opposite is true. 

Call them red tape if you like, but it's a semantic and ultimately flawed, essentially ideological argument which is anti-globalist and inherently small time.  

If you want an example of how standards and efficiency work, think of the decimal system vs imperial. Removing standards is backward. 

Funny how even the yanks now provide data and use the decimal in engineering (and have done for decades since learning some fairly horrific lessons during the Apollo Program)  despite it not being "their" standard. And funny how Trump decries the "Brussels effect" in the same way. 

17 minutes ago, DoubleOhStephan said:

The EU doesn't have a trade agreement with the US. The UK is the first of the EU countries to be in a position to negotiate terms which are better than the current WTO terms.  Being first is a clear advantage. 

This deal will enable the UK to buy US produce far cheaper than the EU are able to. The UK could immediately start trading US produce with non-EU European countries, undercutting the EU. That's another clear advantage. 

Why would non EU countries by from the UK when they could just buy US produce from the US?

Why would we want to base our trade and foreign policy on being a middle man for US made goods?

What's so good about US made goods?

Why is that a better arrangement than taking billions in tax receipts for being the bank and insurer for the largest trading bloc on Earth? 

The questions go on and on BTW... 

49 minutes ago, DoubleOhStephan said:

And you're right not to, any prediction of the future is always highly caveated by the fact that sadly, no one is able to predict the future. 

The point remains, the EU economy is on the verge going into recession, the US economy has rarely looked stronger, India is exploding and we don't even know what the effect the coronavirus will have on the Chinese economy but it has the potential to seriously arrest their development.

That's where the opportunity is, and the UK has first access to it before of all our nearest competitors. 

Okay. I'll play along... access to what specific opportunity? 

And how does not being in the EU mean we're first in the queue?

BTW, it's no given that the EU is going into anything like a recession and it's still on an upwards trend regardless... Canada is the best recovering western advanced economy and guess who they've aligned with?

1 minute ago, BigRedX said:

Or you'll need a separate visa for each individual European country with all the additional expense and bureaucracy that incurs.

Makes me thankful that due to my parents I should be eligible for either German or Scottish nationality.

Pretty sure that will be the case come December... There's no such thing as an EU visa afaik. 

1 minute ago, peteb said:

More likely Scotland will have gone, there will be an United Ireland and we will have s revised trade agreement that pretty much puts us in the EEA in all but name. But there is plenty of pain ahead before we get to that position. 

Yeah, that's my prediction. Say bye bye to Gibraltar too. 

There's a lot of fighting to do first though. I don't think we'll get a deal (that Johnson can sell as a win) this year and that's going to be pretty economically catastrophic. At which point any of the territories that want out of the UK will go pretty swiftly. 

17 minutes ago, DoubleOhStephan said:

Seems like a short term problem to me.

The bloc will have largely collapsed within ten years rendering EU visas redundant.

Let's hope not eh? Otherwise there'll be a lot more than visas being redundant. 

And my Russian is awful. 

1 minute ago, Al Krow said:

But let's take worst case and say that this doesn't happen.

Are we really saying that the opportunity to generate £10s billions of economic activity is going to be passed up because EU artists are going to stop coming over.

Are there really no UK artists to take their place (e.g. all the pro-musos looking for work who are not moving to Dublin)?

It's not going to wipe the industry out completely, but it's not going to do it any favours is it? 

It's just an added cost and added ball ache and that will mean less of it happens. That's how economic activity tends to work. 

Just now, Al Krow said:

Again I'm struggling with your numbers. How many artists are coming over to the UK to generate £10s billions in small amounts? What are you considering to be a small amount, and we can work backwards to the number of overseas artists coming to the UK each year. 

We're talking at cross purposes. You are trying to identify the smallest proportion of the industry that you can agree will be definitely effected. 

I'm saying it will effect the whole industry, parts of it to a lesser or greater degree. 

1 minute ago, Al Krow said:

And that's where I'm struggling with the economic analysis. If its worth £10s billions then frankly some enterprising half wit is going to spot that it's worth sorting out visas. 

It's either worth a lot of money, in which case visa costs and effort are worth it, or it's not?

It's worth a lot of money in aggregate, but is made up of lots of relatively small transactions with small margins on each. 

8 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

True and the pro-muso small club scene is worth diddly squat over here, as folk have already pointed out.

What is worth £billions is film and computer graphics. We're doing brilliantly on that score as a nation.

The likely effects of visas and carnets on the performing arts industry as a whole is what's more concerning.

As we've already discussed, touring bands are less likely to come to the UK. Prices are likely to rise to cover costs for those that do. And yes, it's not just bands, its all of the performing arts, which is not diddly squat. It's £10s of billions. It's also an industry with a very high Gross Added Value. ie, it brings huge revenues to associated industries such as bars and restaurants, retail, transport etc.    

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/priti-patel-immigration-music-industry-home-office-a9347921.html

So the Creative Arts industry is worth an estimated £111Bln a year... 

It's not just about a few musos moving or not moving to Dublin... 

I run an SME. We employ 3 people. 2 of them are youngish. All British. They’re all sound and we pay to train them. 
 

Unfortunately, we won’t be employing any more people, British or not for the foreseeable as to expand we would rely on EU grants, as we did when we set up, as our business is heavily reliant on plant and capital investment. There are no UK equivalents and none are expected to replace them. 

1 minute ago, peteb said:

What it really means for many people I know is forget about making a living from playing music and go and get a job in a call centre. 

Meanwhile, all the decent work will go to those with an EU passport. 

There's plenty of fruit and veg that needs picking. 

Although, from what I've heard through the grapevine, the plan is for licensed companies to sort that out with semi mobile, billeted Ukrainians. What could possibly go wrong there?  

4 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

If it's a consequence of FoM coming to an end, then so be it. Sometimes we have to live with what our fellow countrymen vote for - it's called democracy. There are going to be winners and losers from the changes to visa / immigration laws...

Aye, que sara sara. 

What annoys me though is people saying "oh it'll be alright" and "you never know what will happen" etc etc when specific problems and drawbacks are pointed out. 

We've **** the bed in a lot of ways. Now we get to lie in it. 

 about Mr Delvar. He can be a mean old bugger. I spotted that some time back

6 minutes ago, skankdelvar said:

It's £244 to work in the UK for a year. No one seems to know how much the EU might charge but it would probably be the same as applies to US and other 'third country' artists.

Of course, it's possible that something like this might be sorted out in discussions over the next year or so. 

As far as I know, the EU don't charge for visas. It's up to each member state how much they charge for non EU citizens temp working visas. 

Also don't forget it's not just the charges and the visas. Somebody has to do that. The admin. Somebody is getting paid. Somebody is paying for it. 

Either that or things just don't happen. 

And it won't be sorted out in the discussions barring the UK doing a complete turnaround over FoM. That's essentially what we're talking about. There's no way the the EU are gonna go, "oh yeah, come over, do what you like with no visas". 

2 minutes ago, Woodwind said:

I haven't read the thing, is it £244 for an annual EU visa or £244 for each EU country you work in?

No, it's for workers coming to the UK. It would cost a lot more than £244 to get visas to work in each of the countries in the EU. 

2 minutes ago, skankdelvar said:

A band coming here for 2 weeks would presumably apply for the shorter, three month Tier 5 (Temporary Worker - Creative and Sporting) Concession I detailed in the post you quoted. 

But of course, yes, a 10-15 person touring party expecting to make a whacking margin of a whole £200 a gig which applied for a year's visa for the purposes of doing 5 dates over 2 weeks would be out of pocket by a fair bit and serve them right for not doing their homework.

Of course, the WAG's you mention wouldn't have to pay for a temporary worker's visa so that would save a few bob.

They do come now. They won't come any more. No matter how you dress it up. 

5 hours ago, Al Krow said:

I completely get the concern, but I think until the visa regime (cost and visa duration and whether it's happening at all) is clear it's a little too early to start panicking?

It was clear the moment that leaving the EU and not being parf of EU FoM was mooted. 

You'll need a visa to work over there. That's that. And Non UK citizens will need a visa to work here. That's what Brexit means for people who work in different countries. Simple as that. 

The cost and hassle of which will mean less of it goes on. 

18 minutes ago, skankdelvar said:

The cost of £244 per head relates specifically to the 12 month visa. A fiver a week doesn't sound unreasonable to me.

So a band on tour, with techs and wags. Maybe 10-15 people. Coming to the UK as part of a European tour and playing 5 gigs over a 2 week period to audiences of 500 with a margin of about £100-£200 per night if they're lucky.  Don't forget the promoter needs to be paid too. 

You think £2.5-£4k doesn't sound unreasonable? Yeah. Right on.

Those sort of bands will just swerve the UK entirely.