When Do You Think Your Band Will Start Gigging Again ?

[peteb]

29 minutes ago, Dan Dare said:

"Dangerous talk"? Dear me. You'd have been right at home in the GDR or the USSR.

OK, let's see your numbers. "Plenty out there in the young, fit, healthy range who are doing very badly with C-19 and dying"? Give us figures, please, together with proof that Covid was what killed them (none of this dying "with" the bug that the media is so fond of stating).

Over to you.

What a moronic attitude! I doubt that I would care to spend much time in your company at any time, but now I would literally avoid you like the plague.

A guy I’ve done a string of gigs with (50 something, very friendly chap, pro guitar player) died from it. Apparently, he had diabetes, although I never knew until after he passed away. Now I’m never going see him play again, have a chat with him or grab a quick beer at the end of the night.  You might think that you might survive catching it (although at your age you should worry more), but it’s also who you are in contact with at a gig and who they are going to be in contact with later.

Obviously, otherwise healthy people who have had higher levels of exposure (from medics to bus drivers) have died. I’m sure that I can manage without gigging for a few months given the current situation.

[Barking Spiders]

21 minutes ago, hiram.k.hackenbacker said:

That's handy, 'cos we're not f*****g selling it on Basschat as AFAIK. This is not the common cold/flu or anything like it. I know a couple of fit and healthy people that have gone down with this and they very nearly didn't make it back.

Your flippant comment is insensitive to those that have lost acquaintances, at the very least.

Absolutely. Those who  blithely dismiss the concern about covid-19  as 'mass hysteria ' etc p!$$ me right off.  I've had what's been termed 'mild' covid-19 and it's still a complete bastid.  I didn't need hospitalisation but it still wiped me out for three weeks. While I didn't have lower respiratory problems I had many other symptoms such as loss of taste and smell, a streaming nose, a raw sore throat, chronic diarrhea, brain splitting headaches and fatigue so bad I struggled to get out of bed. I'm over the worst of it but some problems still linger. I'm just 50, never had flu, have a very healthy diet, drink little, exercise a lot,  don't smoke and rarely ever get colds.  When I see pictures and read stories of idiots having BBQ parties, crowding beaches etc I find myself hoping they get covid to show them how irresponsibly selfish their behaviour has been. Why is it that people in Denmark, Germany and other countries where infection rates have been low do what they're advised to do yet in the English speaking world many still carry on like they're on holiday.

[Len_derby]

The bands I play with have pretty much written off 2020 for live performances.

Anything we manage to do will be a bonus and a pleasure. Particularly as it’ll demonstrate that things are starting to get back to normal, whatever the new normal will be.

[mep]

Can we stick to discussing gigs, or lack off on this thread. 'Edit - due to coronavirus obviously'. It's getting derailed and those posts are more suited to the BC Coranvirus thread.

Edited April 20, 2020 by mep

[ubit]

55 minutes ago, mep said:

Can we stick to discussing gigs, or lack off on this thread. It's getting derailed and those posts are more suited to the BC Coranvirus thread.

Quite possibly because most people can't gig because of the Corona virus mate

[peteb]

17 hours ago, FinnDave said:

Our April & May gigs have been cancelled but we still have a couple in the book for early June, but I have serious doubts that they'll happen. Next after that is late July, and I'm hopeful that that'll happen.

I would imagine that you are probably right and July is a realistic target for gigs to open up again. We are on ‘lockdown’ (or the UK equivalent) for a further 3 weeks with probably a further 3 weeks after that. By then the infection / death rate will hopefully have flattened sufficiently for people to be allowed back to work in many sectors, with pubs / clubs / places of entertainment to follow a few weeks later. Of course, something might happen to change this, but I would think that your timeline is pretty likely from what we know now.

As far as vaccines go, I’m sure that one will be produced in about a year’s time, which of course will be too late for this pandemic (note that they did eventually produce a vaccine for the more deadly SARS virus). Of course, what we need is a general coronavirus vaccine, but will they continue putting resources into developing one once the immediate danger from COVID-19 has passed?

Edited April 20, 2020 by peteb

[fretmeister]

I expect the lockdown for entertainment and sports venues to be the very last things to end.

So sometime in 2021 at the earliest.

I expect the lockdown for other work places to end earlier, but then for other intermittent lockdown periods to take place whenever there is a peak in the numbers of people in hospital.

 

There are 3 or 4 different coronavirus types that humans get - such as the common cold. Attempts to find a vaccine for those have failed for over 100 years. I don't expect any quick success, if at all. The virus is now in the population enough for it not to go away on it's own. It is now endemic.

I expect what we have now - but with intermittent lockdown periods - is the new normal.

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by fretmeister

[peteb]

10 minutes ago, fretmeister said:

I expect the lockdown for entertainment and sports venues to be the very last things to end.

So sometime in 2021 at the earliest.

I expect the lockdown for other work places to end earlier, but then for other intermittent lockdown periods to take place whenever there is a peak in the numbers of people in hospital.

 

There are 3 or 4 different coronavirus types that humans get - such as the common cold. Attempts to find a vaccine for those have failed for over 100 years. I don't expect any quick success, if at all. The virus is now in the population enough for it not to go away on it's own. It is now endemic.

I expect what we have now - but with intermittent lockdown periods - is the new normal.

 

With respect, I don't think that your analysis is likely to be correct. If it is, then it's all academic anyway. I doubt that there will be a single venue that I play regularly that will still be in business. 

[la bam]

Pretty sure that local registrars have been banned from working until around september this year. So that rules out most Weddings until then.

There will surely be a staggered return to normality over time. They wont open everything back up at once. I'd imagine the party sector and pubs and clubs will be amongst the last to open.

[ambient]

16 minutes ago, peteb said:

With respect, I don't think that your analysis is likely to be correct. If it is, then it's all academic anyway. I doubt that there will be a single venue that I play regularly that will still be in business. 

I think Fretmeister’s analysis is probably quite accurate, at least based on what I’ve read. You’re quite right too though, I doubt many venues will successfully weather the storm. Similarly wedding venues, and the myriad other small businesses that artists rely on for gigs.

[fretmeister]

18 minutes ago, peteb said:

With respect, I don't think that your analysis is likely to be correct. If it is, then it's all academic anyway. I doubt that there will be a single venue that I play regularly that will still be in business. 

It's not really my analysis.

 

Fauci (and backed up by Imperial College in a separate report) has stated that point on vaccines. Don't assume we'll get one.

Personal friends - one an epidemiologist and the other a pharmacologist  - both researchers at Oxford Uni - agree and wished for a far earlier lockdown and would be against non-essential large gatherings such as gigs and sport being allowed to take place again until a vaccine is available irrespective of how long that takes.... and that might be decades as has occurred on other vaccines research.

WHO have stated it is now endemic to humanity. It is now part of the normal ecosystem just like the common cold and regular 'flu. It will come in waves like those conditions. 

I've also seen some early reports by actuaries lowering expected average life expectancy due to the virus. 

 

I really want to be wrong.  I really want the WHO and other world leading epidemiologists to be wrong. But I see no reason to be hopeful on the current evidence.

 

 

[fretmeister]

18 minutes ago, ambient said:

I think Fretmeister’s analysis is probably quite accurate, at least based on what I’ve read. You’re quite right too though, I doubt many venues will successfully weather the storm. Similarly wedding venues, and the myriad other small businesses that artists rely on for gigs.

The venues, or more likely the companies that own the venues will cease trading.

However, if / when there is a vaccine or an effective treatment available then those venue buildings will still be there. They might need a bit of spit and polish, but they will be there. Nobody is going to start knocking them down. There's no benefit to that from either an economic or health point of view.

 

Until that time - get a good DAW and write the best music you can to be ready. What else have we got to do?

 

 

[peteb]

23 minutes ago, ambient said:

I think Fretmeister’s analysis is probably quite accurate, at least based on what I’ve read. You’re quite right too though, I doubt many venues will successfully weather the storm. Similarly wedding venues, and the myriad other small businesses that artists rely on for gigs.

From what I can gather, he is possibly being a touch pessimistic. There will be a lot of pressure to get back to ‘normal’ as soon as it is judged that the risk level is acceptable (my worry is that it maybe be lifted too soon) and I doubt that pubs / venues, etc will be still closed by the end of the year, provided that there isn’t a massive secondary peak of infection.

Of course, the real issue is what the ‘new normal’ will look like? It is possible that in the future that there could be short-term seasonal lockdowns if the virus mutates and there is another coronavirus going round.

[mcnach]

11 minutes ago, fretmeister said:

However, if / when there is a vaccine or an effective treatment available then those venue buildings will still be there. They might need a bit of spit and polish, but they will be there. Nobody is going to start knocking them down.

 

 

 

If they cease trading, I see a few of them becoming housing at least here in Edinburgh. It's a trend that has been going on for a few years. Once a venue goes, you don't get another in its place elsewhere. This can potentially change a lot the whole live music scene.

[PaulWarning]

I see 450 deaths today, I know it's a Monday but still a low total, a 'leading expert' is  casting doubt on whether the lockdown was really necessary, the world is full of people who think they know better.

I know I know it's in the Mail.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8235979/UKs-coronavirus-crisis-peaked-lockdown-Expert-argues-draconian-measures-unnecessary.html

Anyway, the deaths and infections look like they have levelled off and the NHS has plenty of spare capacity (how long before someone is criticising the decision to open up the Nightingale Hospital?) so a gentle easing of restrictions is on the cards on May 7th, and if that goes ok they'll be more to follow

[fretmeister]

4 minutes ago, PaulWarning said:

I see 450 deaths today, I know it's a Monday but still a low total, a 'leading expert' is  casting doubt on whether the lockdown was really necessary, the world is full of people who think they know better.

I know I know it's in the Mail.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8235979/UKs-coronavirus-crisis-peaked-lockdown-Expert-argues-draconian-measures-unnecessary.html

Anyway, the deaths and infections look like they have levelled off and the NHS has plenty of spare capacity (how long before someone is criticising the decision to open up the Nightingale Hospital?) so a gentle easing of restrictions is on the cards on May 7th, and if that goes ok they'll be more to follow

Quite.

 

We are nearly at this point..

 

 

[fretmeister]

5 minutes ago, mcnach said:

 

If they cease trading, I see a few of them becoming housing at least here in Edinburgh. It's a trend that has been going on for a few years. Once a venue goes, you don't get another in its place elsewhere. This can potentially change a lot the whole live music scene.

I get that. But I can't see anyone building or converting to close quarter housing while the virus is around. Too risky, surely?

[peteb]

26 minutes ago, fretmeister said:

It's not really my analysis.

 

Fauci (and backed up by Imperial College in a separate report) has stated that point on vaccines. Don't assume we'll get one.

Personal friends - one an epidemiologist and the other a pharmacologist  - both researchers at Oxford Uni - agree and wished for a far earlier lockdown and would be against non-essential large gatherings such as gigs and sport being allowed to take place again until a vaccine is available irrespective of how long that takes.... and that might be decades as has occurred on other vaccines research.

WHO have stated it is now endemic to humanity. It is now part of the normal ecosystem just like the common cold and regular 'flu. It will come in waves like those conditions. 

I've also seen some early reports by actuaries lowering expected average life expectancy due to the virus. 

 

I really want to be wrong.  I really want the WHO and other world leading epidemiologists to be wrong. But I see no reason to be hopeful on the current evidence.

I’m basing my views on what I’ve read and briefings going out to public bodies and I’m not trying to be overly optimistic. I completely agree with your friends that there should have been a far earlier lockdown and can see why they would want to ban non-essential large gatherings. But that doesn’t mean that what they want will happen, if only due to economic pressures.

We don’t know what the ongoing threat will be at the moment, nor do we know what the ‘new normal’ will be. Will there be a different protocol for mass gatherings to that for pubs and clubs? Certainly, the findings of the WHO and other experts are very worrying (hence the wish of certain governments to get rid of the WHO), but I imagine that most types of economic activity will resume in some recognisable shape or form.

Edited April 20, 2020 by peteb

[peteb]

3 minutes ago, fretmeister said:

Quite.

 

We are nearly at this point..

 

 

Exactly...! 

[fretmeister]

1 minute ago, peteb said:

I’m basing my views on what I’ve read and briefings going out to public bodies and I’m not trying to be overly optimistic. I completely agree with your friends that there should have been a far earlier lockdown and can see why they would want to ban non-essential large gatherings. But that doesn’t mean that what they want will happen, if only due to economic pressures.

We don’t know what the ongoing threat will be at the moment, nor do we know what the ‘new normal’ will be. Will there be a different protocol for mass gatherings to that for pubs and clubs? Certainly, the findings of the WHO and other experts are very worrying (hence the wish of certain governments to get rid of the WHO), but I imagine that a most types of economic activity will resume in some shape or form.

Economic activity will have to resume even with some life cost (I hate that, but I'm also a realist), but entertainment will be low on the list.

 

It's very difficult - I work a lot of hours, and my Saturday big band is really the only stress relief / escape from work I have. Now that has gone. It's run by a local charitable trust and I have no idea if they will survive.

I miss it, and just as importantly, the people there very much. It was only 3 hours per week but it is / was massively important to my mental state.

 

I do some other things of course - enjoy films, do low and slow BBQ etc but nothing compares to the music gang. There's just something special about playing with a load of musicians - not that I have to explain that to anyone on this forum! 

 

[peteb]

22 minutes ago, fretmeister said:

Economic activity will have to resume even with some life cost (I hate that, but I'm also a realist), but entertainment will be low on the list.

 

It's very difficult - I work a lot of hours, and my Saturday big band is really the only stress relief / escape from work I have. Now that has gone. It's run by a local charitable trust and I have no idea if they will survive.

I miss it, and just as importantly, the people there very much. It was only 3 hours per week but it is / was massively important to my mental state.

 

I do some other things of course - enjoy films, do low and slow BBQ etc but nothing compares to the music gang. There's just something special about playing with a load of musicians - not that I have to explain that to anyone on this forum! 

 

Please note that I agree with everything you are saying apart from when it is likely that smaller gigs will start to go ahead again. 

Exactly how things will look this time next year is another thing. For example, Glastonbury has been cancelled this summer. It will be very interesting to see if it goes ahead next year...! 

[Bluewine]

7 hours ago, ubit said:

I was at that one year in early 2000. It was really good. The only criticism I would have was the benches they provided were great during the day when it was quiet but at night when the bigger bands were on, people stood on them so if you didn't have bench space you had no chance of seeing the band. I heard Wolfmother but couldn't even get a glimpse of them.

The grounds and stages have undergone numerous upgrades and several headliner stages have been added since 2000 including 2 state of the art amphitheaters.

Cool that you've visited us.

Blue

Edited April 20, 2020 by Bluewine

[Bluewine]

1 hour ago, fretmeister said:

Economic activity will have to resume even with some life cost (I hate that, but I'm also a realist), but entertainment will be low on the list.

 

It's very difficult - I work a lot of hours, and my Saturday big band is really the only stress relief / escape from work I have. Now that has gone. It's run by a local charitable trust and I have no idea if they will survive.

I miss it, and just as importantly, the people there very much. It was only 3 hours per week but it is / was massively important to my mental state.

 

I do some other things of course - enjoy films, do low and slow BBQ etc but nothing compares to the music gang. There's just something special about playing with a load of musicians - not that I have to explain that to anyone on this forum! 

 

I can't put into words how much I miss playing with my band.

For those who follow my threads know where I stand on money. At this point if it's safe I'll play free of charge.

Blue

[Bluewine]

43 minutes ago, peteb said:

Please note that I agree with everything you are saying apart from when it is likely that smaller gigs will start to go ahead again. 

Exactly how things will look this time next year is another thing. For example, Glastonbury has been cancelled this summer. It will be very interesting to see if it goes ahead next year...! 

Hi Pete,

Good to hear from you. Stay safe.

Blue

[peteb]

5 minutes ago, Bluewine said:

Hi Pete,

Good to hear from you. Stay safe.

Blue

Thanks Daryl - scary times - you look after yourself as well...