Al Krow Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Just now, bigjohn said: It's worth a lot of money in aggregate, but is made up of lots of relatively small transactions with small margins on each. Again I'm struggling with your numbers. How many artists are coming over to the UK to generate £10s billions in small amounts? What are you considering to be a small amount, and we can work backwards to the number of overseas artists coming to the UK each year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezbass Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Al Krow said: And that's where I'm struggling with the economic analysis. If its worth £10s billions then frankly some enterprising half wit is going to spot that it's worth sorting out visas. It's either worth a lot of money, in which case visa costs and effort are worth it, or it's not? The artist doesn't see the knock on financial benefits of them touring, but has to pick up the additional costs. Hopefully, and I'm not holding my breath here, those in control of these things, will see this and come up with an easy and inexpensive way to overcome this potential hurdle. Again, not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohn Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Just now, Al Krow said: Again I'm struggling with your numbers. How many artists are coming over to the UK to generate £10s billions in small amounts? What are you considering to be a small amount, and we can work backwards to the number of overseas artists coming to the UK each year. We're talking at cross purposes. You are trying to identify the smallest proportion of the industry that you can agree will be definitely effected. I'm saying it will effect the whole industry, parts of it to a lesser or greater degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteb Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Al Krow said: You have my admiration sir! It does take a LOT of get up and go to leave the place you've grown up in; the reason why we have such capable EU and rest of the world citizens doing so well over here (and who often get first dibs on unskilled work) is that so many of them were folk with exactly that "get up and go". Well hold your horses! As you say, it takes a lot to up sticks and leave the country in search of a better life and there are redundancy / pension issues for me to sort out, walking away from a couple of moderately successful bands, not to mention family issues for both me and my wife. It is a possibility and a few of my mates have moved or are in the process of moving to the Malaga region, which does hold certain attractions. Of course, it is far easier for a pro muso with no ties to just relocate to Amsterdam (generally, rather than Dublin), but as the saying goes 'behind every moderately successful pro musician is a wife with a steady income'! The real question is why moderately successful people like me are either leaving or looking to leave the country because they think it is going really struggle over the next ten / twenty years, when 15 years ago it was seen as a place of great opportunity?? Edited February 21, 2020 by peteb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al Krow Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, ezbass said: The artist doesn't see the knock on financial benefits of them touring, but has to pick up the additional costs. Hopefully, and I'm not holding my breath here, those in control of these things, will see this and come up with an easy and inexpensive way to overcome this potential hurdle. Again, not holding my breath. But let's take worst case and say that this doesn't happen. Are we really saying that the opportunity to generate £10s billions of economic activity is going to be passed up because EU artists are going to stop coming over. Are there really no UK artists to take their place (e.g. all the pro-musos looking for work who are not moving to Dublin)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al Krow Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Talking of economic activity, lunch break over, for me. This particular son of immigrants (who sorted out their visas) needs to get back to work 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohn Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Al Krow said: But let's take worst case and say that this doesn't happen. Are we really saying that the opportunity to generate £10s billions of economic activity is going to be passed up because EU artists are going to stop coming over. Are there really no UK artists to take their place (e.g. all the pro-musos looking for work who are not moving to Dublin)? It's not going to wipe the industry out completely, but it's not going to do it any favours is it? It's just an added cost and added ball ache and that will mean less of it happens. That's how economic activity tends to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleOhStephan Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Seems like a short term problem to me. The bloc will have largely collapsed within ten years rendering EU visas redundant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teebs Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, DoubleOhStephan said: Seems like a short term problem to me. The bloc will have largely collapsed within ten years rendering EU visas redundant. Or, a different prediction for you - the UK will consist of England and Wales, as Scotland has become independent & re-joined the EU, Northern Ireland has reunified with European Republic of Ireland. The remaining bits of the UK will be the 51st State of America - good NMA song that! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Smalls Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, DoubleOhStephan said: Seems like a short term problem to me. The bloc will have largely collapsed within ten years rendering EU visas redundant. Indeed! {Cues up "Rule Britannia} And we'll have our empire back, we'll all be able to leave our back doors open, and we'll get proper summers and winters again, none of that EU climate change nonsense! 😂 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teebs Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Leonard Smalls said: Indeed! {Cues up "Rule Britannia} And we'll have our empire back, we'll all be able to leave our back doors open, and we'll get proper summers and winters again, none of that EU climate change nonsense! 😂 Ooh! Can we eat roast beef and Yorkshire puidding for every meal too? And all doff our caps to the squire as he passes us by, high on his horse! And have respect for our elders and betters, and learn the 3Rs at school - reading, riting and 'rithmetic? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteb Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 More likely Scotland will have gone, there will be an United Ireland and we will have s revised trade agreement that pretty much puts us in the EEA in all but name. But there is plenty of pain ahead before we get to that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohn Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, DoubleOhStephan said: Seems like a short term problem to me. The bloc will have largely collapsed within ten years rendering EU visas redundant. Let's hope not eh? Otherwise there'll be a lot more than visas being redundant. And my Russian is awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteb Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 (edited) On a different note, I must congratulate BC on allowing a sensible debate on an important subject that inevitably involves talking about politics. Edited February 21, 2020 by peteb 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohn Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 minute ago, peteb said: More likely Scotland will have gone, there will be an United Ireland and we will have s revised trade agreement that pretty much puts us in the EEA in all but name. But there is plenty of pain ahead before we get to that position. Yeah, that's my prediction. Say bye bye to Gibraltar too. There's a lot of fighting to do first though. I don't think we'll get a deal (that Johnson can sell as a win) this year and that's going to be pretty economically catastrophic. At which point any of the territories that want out of the UK will go pretty swiftly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigRedX Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 27 minutes ago, DoubleOhStephan said: Seems like a short term problem to me. The bloc will have largely collapsed within ten years rendering EU visas redundant. Or you'll need a separate visa for each individual European country with all the additional expense and bureaucracy that incurs. Makes me thankful that due to my parents I should be eligible for either German or Scottish nationality. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al Krow Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, peteb said: On a different note, I must congratulate BC on allowing a sensible debate on an important subject that inevitably involves talking about politics. Helped I suspect by us continuing to treat others' legitimately held views with respect. Always a good thing, when it can be pulled off! Quite enough of that, isn't it about time you pushed off abroad? 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohn Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 minute ago, BigRedX said: Or you'll need a separate visa for each individual European country with all the additional expense and bureaucracy that incurs. Makes me thankful that due to my parents I should be eligible for either German or Scottish nationality. Pretty sure that will be the case come December... There's no such thing as an EU visa afaik. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleOhStephan Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 49 minutes ago, Teebs said: Or, a different prediction for you - the UK will consist of England and Wales, as Scotland has become independent & re-joined the EU, Northern Ireland has reunified with European Republic of Ireland. The remaining bits of the UK will be the 51st State of America - good NMA song that! The EU is going to collapse, just look at the state of their economies. Without the UK, Germany and France can't afford to run it, so their economies will tank, which in turn tanks the remaining EU countries left in the bloc. End of EU. Meanwhile, the UK will have already set up trading agreements with the three biggest economies on the planet. Scotland won't leave because they'll have nowhere to go, but also there is no way they would they give up access to these markets. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teebs Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, DoubleOhStephan said: The EU is going to collapse, just look at the state of their economies. Without the UK, Germany and France can't afford to run it, so their economies will tank, which in turn tanks the remaining EU countries left in the bloc. End of EU. Meanwhile, the UK will have already set up trading agreements with the three biggest economies on the planet. Scotland won't leave because they'll have nowhere to go, but also there is no way they would they give up access to these markets. That is indeed one possible future. I don't believe it though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete.young Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, DoubleOhStephan said: Seems like a short term problem to me. The bloc will have largely collapsed within ten years rendering EU visas redundant. Ten years might seem a short time to you, but it's more than the rest of my allotted biblical lifespan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleOhStephan Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Teebs said: That is indeed one possible future. I don't believe it though. And you're right not to, any prediction of the future is always highly caveated by the fact that sadly, no one is able to predict the future. The point remains, the EU economy is on the verge going into recession, the US economy has rarely looked stronger, India is exploding and we don't even know what the effect the coronavirus will have on the Chinese economy but it has the potential to seriously arrest their development. That's where the opportunity is, and the UK has first access to it before of all our nearest competitors. Edited February 21, 2020 by DoubleOhStephan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teebs Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, DoubleOhStephan said: the US economy has rarely looked stronger... That's where the opportunity is, and the UK has first access to it before of all our nearest competitors. I think the opportunity is for the Americans to exploit - not the UK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owen Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 But the US is our special friend, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teebs Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, owen said: But the US is our special friend, no? No. Edited February 21, 2020 by Teebs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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