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LewisK1975

SIMS Bass raffle - Enfield Avenger

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It looks like a lovely bass. I know I sound like a baby when I say I prefer the more traditional shape of these to the other models...if I’m honest a tort guard would balance the darkness of the pickups too.

I’m not sure yet on the £50. Not yet.

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1 hour ago, Dan Dare said:

The value of the prize doesn't come into it. It's the chance of winning that is important if you are considering a gamble.

I think the prize definitely matters.  If it's £50 to enter, and your chance of winning is 1 in 50, and the prize is £10, only a fool would enter.  But if the prize was £10,000,000 you'd be a fool not to.

Quote

Oh and btw, it is a 50/1 shot.

If you have 1 chance in 50 of winning, the odds are 49/1.  It expresses the ratio of the 49 times you lose to the 1 time you win.  In the same way, rolling a 6 on a die is 5/1, and winning a coin toss is 1/1.

 

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6 hours ago, jrixn1 said:

I think the prize definitely matters.  If it's £50 to enter, and your chance of winning is 1 in 50, and the prize is £10, only a fool would enter.  But if the prize was £10,000,000 you'd be a fool not to.

If you have 1 chance in 50 of winning, the odds are 49/1.  It expresses the ratio of the 49 times you lose to the 1 time you win.  In the same way, rolling a 6 on a die is 5/1, and winning a coin toss is 1/1.

 

I would always show the probability of a heads coin toss as 2/1 - then if you are flipping two coins the probability of both being heads can be shown as (2*2)/1 or three (2*2*2)/1 etc it’s confusing otherwise 

 

I think you’re showing win ratio rather than probability 

Edited by LukeFRC

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Just to clear things up...

On a coin toss, the odds of an outcome are 1/1

The probability is 1/2.

...right?

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8 hours ago, jrixn1 said:

I think the prize definitely matters.  If it's £50 to enter, and your chance of winning is 1 in 50, and the prize is £10, only a fool would enter.  But if the prize was £10,000,000 you'd be a fool not to.

If you have 1 chance in 50 of winning, the odds are 49/1.  It expresses the ratio of the 49 times you lose to the 1 time you win.  In the same way, rolling a 6 on a die is 5/1, and winning a coin toss is 1/1.

 

The prize isn't £10m. It's around £2k. As for being "a fool not to", do you buy £50 worth of lottery tickets when the rollover tops £10m? How many times have you won the big prize? You're incorrect about how odds work, but I can't be bothered to argue.

Edited by Dan Dare
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4 hours ago, EBS_freak said:

Just to clear things up...

On a coin toss, the odds of an outcome are 1/1

The probability is 1/2.

...right?

Yes, exactly.  I think confusion can arise because the "/" symbol is used in different ways:

When discussing probability, "/" is showing a fraction.  So for winning a throw of the die, where you win 1 time out of 6, the probability of winning is 1/6, or 1÷6, or 0.166667.  The scale runs from 0 (something which is literally impossible) to 1 (a dead cert).

On the other hand, with odds, "/" expresses a ratio of losing to winning.  E.g. the odds of winning a throw of the die are 5/1, as this is saying that 5 times you lose vs 1 time you win.  It'd perhaps be a lot clearer if it was written 5-1 or 5:1, but the convention for whatever reason is to use "/".

Then there's another scenario.  When you bet on a horse at, say, 10/1, that is not the mathematical odds of the horse winning, but the price the bookmaker will pay out for a win, again expressed as a ratio; i.e. they will give you £10 profit for each £1 you wager.  The true mathematical odds of the horse winning are impossible to work out, but they will generally be less likely than the price offered; the difference is how the bookmakers make a living.  With the dice analogy, it would be you (the punter) rolling the die, which mathematically has 5/1 odds of winning; but I (the bookmaker) only offering you 4/1 on your money.

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2 minutes ago, jrixn1 said:

Yes, exactly.  I think confusion can arise because the "/" symbol is used in different ways:

When discussing probability, "/" is showing a fraction.  So for winning a throw of the die, where you win 1 time out of 6, the probability of winning is 1/6, or 1÷6, or 0.166667.  The scale runs from 0 (something which is literally impossible) to 1 (a dead cert).

On the other hand, with odds, "/" expresses a ratio of losing to winning.  E.g. the odds of winning a throw of the die are 5/1, as this is saying that 5 times you lose vs 1 time you win.  It'd perhaps be a lot clearer if it was written 5-1 or 5:1, but the convention for whatever reason is to use "/".

Then there's another scenario.  When you bet on a horse at, say, 10/1, that is not the mathematical odds of the horse winning, but the price the bookmaker will pay out for a win, again expressed as a ratio; i.e. they will give you £10 profit for each £1 you wager.  The true mathematical odds of the horse winning are impossible to work out, but they will generally be less likely than the price offered; the difference is how the bookmakers make a living.  With the dice analogy, it would be you (the punter) rolling the die, which mathematically has 5/1 odds of winning; but I (the bookmaker) only offering you 4/1 on your money.

I remember all this from my maths lessons when I was a kid. Not that I've ever really had a real world application in which to make use of what I'd learned. I've never been a gambler - my only flutter being on the lottery. But I don't think anybody plays that based on odds...

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2 hours ago, mr zed said:

I wonder what would happen if he OP is the only person to enter......!

I would expect to get refunded - They won't draw until they've sold 50 entries.

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I’m pretty sure it’s in breach of the Gambling Act. I’ve emailed Martin Sims at Enfield this morning via their FB site saying he should check it out and pointing to some Gambling Commission web links. Let’s see if it’s still up there by tomorrow...

 

Maybe you’ll be lucky if they do a Big Bass GIVEAWAY @LewisK1975

Edited by TrevorR
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1 hour ago, TrevorR said:

I’m pretty sure it’s in breach of the Gambling Act. I’ve emailed Martin Sims at Enfield this morning via their FB site saying he should check it out and pointing to some Gambling Commission web links. Let’s see if it’s still up there by tomorrow...

 

Maybe you’ll be lucky if they do a Big Bass GIVEAWAY @LewisK1975

Hi - Thank you for your Facebook message this morning, we are currently reaching out to the gambling commission and we will work with them on a solution, if it’s simply just not possible then everyone who has entered will be refunded.

 

Cheers

M

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9 hours ago, Sims said:

Hi - Thank you for your Facebook message this morning, we are currently reaching out to the gambling commission and we will work with them on a solution, if it’s simply just not possible then everyone who has entered will be refunded.

 

Cheers

M

Martin, Sorry to have been the potential bearer of bad news. Hope that it all gets sorted out amicably and without kerfuffle.

Edited by TrevorR

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I entered a similar one years ago. £20 but the top prize was an Aston Martin.

Needless to say I didn't win.

 

Shame really, think of all the basses I could have bought when I sold it!

  • Haha 2

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5 minutes ago, fretmeister said:

I entered a similar one years ago. £20 but the top prize was an Aston Martin.

Needless to say I didn't win.

 

Shame really, think of all the basses I could have bought when I sold it!

Or all the lead singers and guitarists you could have ejected at high speed...🥴

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2 hours ago, Sims said:

This is still on guys! All proceeds going to Nordorf Robbins.

Good news!!!

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Glad to see the raffle is still on, despite some rather cynical attempts to torpedo the venture. Good luck to all who enter and I hope whoever wins love the bass. 

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4 hours ago, AndyTravis said:

I’m sat on a fence wondering what to do...

Could you ask the guy with grey hair next to you whether he's 'for' or 'against'?

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2 minutes ago, yorks5stringer said:

Could you ask the guy with grey hair next to you whether he's 'for' or 'against'?

Hahaha. No. I’m asking myself as a dad of 4 if £50 can go walkies with nobody noticing.

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